Saturday, October 15, 2016

5 Weeks of NC Absentee by Mail-In Ballots with 150K Ballots Requested

With the end of the fifth week of absentee by mail-in ballots in North Carolina, over 150,000 voters have requested ballots for the November 8, 2016 general election.

Of the requested ballots, 40 percent are from registered Republicans, 31 percent from registered Democrats, and 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. To compare these percentages against the 10-15-16 voter registration pool, 40 percent of NC voters are registered Democrats, 30 percent registered Republicans, 30 percent are registered unaffiliated, and less than 1 percent are registered Libertarians.

In comparison to 2012's sent ballots by dates leading up to that year's general election by party registration:

Sent ballots out are running slightly ahead of where they were this same day in 2012 (102 percent as of the same-day 2012 numbers), but registered Democrats are at 118 percent of their same day numbers from 2012, registered unaffiliated voters are 137 percent, registered Libertarians are 178 percent, and registered Republicans are 79 percent of where they were this same day in 2012.

Among the nearly 39,000 ballots that have been returned and accepted as votes for the general election, 39 percent are from registered Republicans, 36 percent are from registered Democrats, 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than 1 percent are from registered Libertarians. Over the past five weeks, the pattern of returned and accepted ballots is:

The return rate so far for registered Republicans is 24 percent, registered Democrats is 29 percent, registered unaffiliated voters is 23 percent, and registered Libertarians is 19 percent.

In comparing the returned and accepted ballots to four years ago by party registration:

As of today, this year's returned and accepted mail-in ballots are current 78 percent of where the same-day totals were in 2012. Registered Republicans are at 56 percent of their 2012 same-day numbers, while registered Democrats are 103 percent and registered unaffiliated voters are 107 percent of their same-day totals from four years ago.

Among the outstanding ballots that have yet to be returned and confirmed/accepted, by party registration:

In looking at the racial composition of the requested mail-in ballots so far:

Finally, in looking at whether the 2016 mail-in ballot voters were registered in 2012, and if so, how they voted, or whether they registered after the 2012 election: