Trump Calls Mail Voting Unsafe. Actual Data & Opinion Shows North Carolinians Think Otherwise.

By Michael Bitzer

Just when you think it will be a quiet Monday morning before the start of classes in forty-eight hours, the President of the United States sends out a statement that nobody was expecting, attacking a particular vote method that North Carolina voters have utilized as one of three methods to casting a ballot.

Here's the full statement by the president attacking mail-in ballots, along with many other aspects related to election administration. 

If you ask anyone who studies election administration and voting processes, you will get some very pointed pieces of information to the above statement:

Who is a Candidate for Office? The Answer is More Complicated Than You Might Think

by Christopher Cooper

On January 15, 2025, Andy Nillson announced that he would be a Republican candidate for United States Senate. On August 9, he suspended his campaign, noting that President Trump's "complete and total" endorsement of Republican Michael Whatley, "played a central role" in his decision. 

Two weeks earlier, Democrat Wiley Nickel suspended his campaign for the Democratic side of the United States Senate race just a day after former Governor Roy Cooper entered the race.

Although all of these changes may seem odd (why would you declare and then pull out?), it's all completely normal. People routinely come in and out of candidacy at this point in the campaign season as part of what political scientists refer to as the "invisible primary." As distinct from the actual primary where voters have a direct say, no votes are cast in the invisible primary and the voters themselves may have no say so at all. 

85% of NCians Believe It is Important that Government Statistics Shouldn't Be Politicized

By Michael Bitzer

On Friday, August 1, after what most described as a lackluster employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that showed only 77,000 jobs were added to the economy, with the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent, President Donald Trump directed that the BLS commissioner, who oversees the data gather and statistics reporting, be removed.

In doing so, Trump stated "'In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.'"

Government statistics and data have traditionally been seen as apolitical--collecting and reporting as best as the government agency can, with traditionally adjustments with further data provided to previous months. A core belief is that government-researched and produced data is free from political influence.

Friday's BLS Employment Situation Summary report is one of thousands of government reports that track a variety of topics and issues in American society, produced typically by non-partisan experts and provided to the public and policy makers to help inform, understand, and ground debates around facts. 

In its Survey of American Democracy, the June 2025 Catawba-YouGov Survey of 1,000 North Carolinians asked about the importance of a variety of principles to American democracy, one of them being how North Carolinians viewed the importance of "Government statistics and data are produced by experts who are not influenced by political considerations."

It's Show Time in NC: Whatley vs. Cooper for the U.S. Senate

By Susan Roberts

    As my colleagues at the ONSP Blog have written and observed, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race will turn out to be hugely expensive, perhaps the most expensive in the country if history repeats itself. One of many questions to ask is: are the candidates diametrically opposed and in what ways? Here are some ways that I’m considering how this critical race will play itself out heading towards November 2026.

The Midterm Cycle Divide

    Characteristics of midterm elections are widely recognized. Turnout is routinely lower, while voters of higher socioeconomic classifications tend to dominate. In general, mid-term voters are most often strong partisans and highly attuned to politics. Most political scientists, journalists and pundits would agree that midterms can be seen as a referendum on presidential performance, measured primarily by the number of seats won or lost by the party of the sitting president. 

Excerpt from forthcoming "Almanac of American Politics" on North Carolina

Special Contribution from Louis Jacobson:

For more than five decades, the Almanac of American Politics has set the standard for political reference books. In September, the Almanac will be publishing its 2026 edition, with more than 2,000 pages offering fully updated chapters on all 435 House members and their districts, all 100 senators, all 50 states and governors, and much more.

Below are excerpts from the new chapters in the 2026 Almanac on the state of North Carolina and Gov. Josh Stein, written by Louis Jacobson. Jacobson — a senior correspondent for PolitiFact, a senior columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and a contributor of political coverage for U.S. News & World Report — has written for eight editions of the Almanac since 2000. For the 2026 edition, he served as chief author.

Readers can receive a 15% discount if they purchase the new Almanac at its website and use the code ONSP2026 at checkout. 

NORTH CAROLINA:

Few states have more political polarization between rural and populated areas than North Carolina does—and few states have margins between the two major parties so consistently narrow. But for several election cycles running, Republicans have come out ahead in federal races, although in 2024 Democrats put up stronger performances in downballot races.

Now That Roy's Runnin'...What's His Electoral Coalition Like?

By Michael Bitzer

In the midst of this heat wave, things are officially heating up in North Carolina politics. 

This morning, former Democratic governor Roy Cooper finally put to bed all the speculation and anticipation by formally announcing his run for the open U.S. Senate seat in the Old North State. 

Much analysis will be made over the coming days, weeks (heck, even months to November 2026), but I thought I would add to the discussion the "Cooper-electoral advantage": the strengths he appeared to demonstrate in 2016 and 2020 and that many Democrats hope he brings to 2026. 

Summer Heat Meets Campaign Heat in the Old North State

By Michael Bitzer, Susan Roberts, and Christopher Cooper

To say that the world of NC politics has been abuzz with news in the past 24 hours is like saying "it's summer...so it's hot in the Old North State." An understatement, to say the least. 

On July 23rd, press reports started with Axios, later confirmed by other outlets, that former N.C. governor Roy Cooper has decided to run for the U.S. Senate, a major 'get' for Democrats in what is likely one of the most competitive races for the 2026 mid-term.

The next morning had Politico reporting Lara Trump was out, but Michael Whatley, RNC chair, was in, with Trump's blessing. 

This sets up what everyone had been expecting: a potential clearing of primary field on both sides (at least expected) with two titans running for a coveted open-seat election. Here's our initial "3 Big Thoughts" as we digest and think about this epic contest:

Big Takeaways from Catawba-YouGov Poll on the Principles of American Democracy

By Michael Bitzer

Much has been made about the state of our polarized and divided politics, and if anyone needs a potential case study of that environment, one could look no further than the Old North State. But what about the core ideas and principles of American democracy: are North Carolinians as divided on the fundamental concepts of our democracy as we are in terms of public policies and pure partisanship? 

The Catawba-YouGov Survey polled 1,000 North Carolinians in June about their attitudes regarding various principles of American democracy: governing authority, civic participation, and rights & liberties (the links go to the spreadsheets for each category and the crosstab data).

In doing so, I wanted to explore what the levels of importance (very or somewhat important) that North Carolinians would place on critical components to the notion of self-governance. While I wasn’t sure what would be a sufficient number to say North Carolinians agreed on these democratic principles (ideally, all principles would garner 100 percent importance), I set the bar at principles garnering 80 percent (or higher) saying it was important as demonstrating a sense of agreement. Those principles that were between 60 and 80 percent show some critical differences when it comes to democratic values and ideas. 

While there were some stark differences over key principles and ideas to a democracy, 39 of the 51 principles garnered at least 80 percent of North Carolinians saying the principle was important. Obviously North Carolinians--and particularly partisans--believe that there are a significant majority of core principles of American democracy that are important to our civic health.

However, there were some fundamental issues regarding the importance of some democratic principles: a quarter were below 80 percent of North Carolinians rating them as important, most notably among rights & liberties. 

An Analysis of Registration Recovery Project Voters

by Christopher Cooper

The North Carolina State Board of Elections recently unveiled the Registration Recovery Project (RRP), which includes more than 100,000 North Carolina registered voters. As part of an ongoing project, I thought I'd take a look at the characteristics of these voters to learn more who is on the RRP list, who has their registration "cured" and the demographic and partisan patterns of both.

You can find the most recent iteration of this analysis in a pdf below. The first 5 pages (the analysis of the original lists) remains the same as the original report. The sections titled "Changes since the original list" and "who is curing their registration?" are updated once a week. The basic, summary statistics (figure 2 & discussion) are updated daily on Twitter & Blue Sky. 

• Aug 11th update

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Dr. Christopher Cooper is Madison Distinguished Professor and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His book, Anatomy of a Purple State, was recently published by the University of North Carolina Press.

NCians' Opinions on Their Confidence in President Trump's Decision-Making

By Michael Bitzer

The latest Catawba-YouGov survey findings are out on the confidence North Carolinians have (or not) in President Donald Trump's decision-making on seventeen different policies and issues.

You can find the survey results and a breakdown of data at: https://catawba.edu/news/all-news/2025/yougov-7/