Tuesday, October 30, 2018

One Week To Go

We're now down to the wire when it comes to 2018's mid-term election, and we're at 5 days left in North Carolina's early voting period (which ends this coming Saturday).

Here's the latest numbers (that were also posted to Twitter at @oldnorthstpol) for today's numbers of early votes, through October 29, 2018.

We're now at 1.3 million requested ballots and 1.2 million returned & accepted ballots, for both mail and in-person (onestop) absentee ballots:

For a comparison to 2014's mid-term election:

Except for returned and accepted mail ballots, 2018 has surpassed 2014's final numbers, with several more days to go. North Carolina could be looking at a record 2 million votes cast before Election Day for a mid-term.

Following a slow-down on the weekends, Monday's (10-29) number showed a very healthy jump:

And for accepted ballots (those that will be the early numbers come Election evening when the polls close):

In comparison to 2010, 2014, and 2016, it looks like 2018 is trending towards the middle of 2014's final mid-term numbers and 2016's presidential numbers:

And by party registration in comparison to 2010, 2014, and 2016:

Registered Democrats continue to have a plurality of in-person early votes coming in, steady at 43 percent of the total ballots accepted so far:

By daily percentages, one can spot the Sunday "Souls to the Polls" voter mobilization effort, typically done by black churches in select counties that have Sunday early voting:

So far, we're about to hit 20 percent voter turnout of the 7 million registered voters in the Old North State; perhaps we see a quarter of those voters casting early ballots when Saturday comes:

In looking at various demographic takes on who is showing up to vote so far, by gender are matching their voter registration pool percentage of 53 percent casting ballots:

By "region' in the state (meaning, urban central city voter; suburban voter outside central city but still inside urban county; surrounding suburban county voter; and rural county voter):

By voter race:

And the daily numbers and percentages by voter race:

By generational cohorts (as defined by the Pew Research Center): 

And for comparison to each generation's percentages in the 10-27-18 voter registration pool:

A couple of new charts that I have created show the daily percentages of early voting 'electorates' in North Carolina, for 2014, 2016, and so far in 2018:

And then, a comparison of 2014, 2016, and 2018 for Millennials (and now, Gen Z) voters and their daily percentages of casting early ballots:

It seems like 2018 is mirroring (again) the dynamics of 2016's presidential year, but we'll need to see the final few days of ballots to determine if that trend holds. 

A look at how 2018's early voters and their 2014 voting methods (or not, due to registering after 2014 or just not participating in 2014's election) show an interesting trend developing:

  • 43% of 2018 early voters so far voted using the same method in 2014
  • 25% of 2018 early voters voted on 2014's Election Day
  • 17% of 2018 early voters registered after 2015
  • 13% of 2018 early voters were registered in 2014 but didn't vote in 2014

In particular, looking within voter party registration as to how these early voters cast ballots or didn't:

Notice that 27 percent of registered Republicans, who voted on Election Day in 2014, have cast early ballots this year, while 24 percent of registered Democrats and 23 percent of registered unaffiliated voters voted on Election Day 2014 but have cast early ballots.

The following charts will give a sense of the vote methods used in past elections for some kind of comparison to this year's methods:

Typically, in North Carolina's presidential election years, voters love to vote early, but in mid-terms (2010 and 2014), a majority of ballots came on Election Day. This year may test whether it's more like a presidential year or like a traditional mid-term year.