By Michael Bitzer
In the midst of this heat wave, things are officially heating up in North Carolina politics.
This morning, former Democratic governor Roy Cooper finally put to bed all the speculation and anticipation by formally announcing his run for the open U.S. Senate seat in the Old North State.
Much analysis will be made over the coming days, weeks (heck, even months to November 2026), but I thought I would add to the discussion the "Cooper-electoral advantage": the strengths he appeared to demonstrate in 2016 and 2020 and that many Democrats hope he brings to 2026.
For readers of this blog, they know that when I think of North Carolina's regionalism, it's beyond the traditional urban-suburban-rural dynamics. Within North Carolina's urban counties, there are actually two distinct geographic areas: the central city (think Charlotte, Raleigh, Winston-Salem, Greensboro) and then the outlying 'urban suburbs' (think Huntersville, Wake Forest, Apex).
These urban counties have distinctive electoral and political dynamics that get lost when you lump them altogether in an 'urban county' designation. So, I think of N.C.'s politics through four regions: central cities; urban suburbs; surrounding suburban counties; and finally, rural counties (see this designation of what the map of the state looks like for urban & suburban designations).
Within this regional dynamic, we see some striking electoral patterns: in a nutshell, it's one lopsided region versus two other lopsided regions, with one truly competitive area.
In 2016, the "Big 3" elections of U.S. presidential, U.S. Senate, and N.C. governor demonstrated how divided the state of North Carolina was:
- U.S. President: Trump 49.83% vs. Clinton 46.17%
- U.S. Senate: Burr 51.06% vs. Ross 45.37%
- N.C. Governor: Cooper 49.02% vs. McCrory 48.8% (a margin of 10,277 votes)
When precinct results are broken down within the four regions, the differences in voting behavior are dramatic. In the 'urban' counties, the Democratic-dominance is very evident, while the urban suburbs show how highly competitive that region was:
The central cities went basically two-to-one Democratic, while the urban suburbs split evenly in the presidential contest, tipped Republican in the U.S. Senate election, and tipped back Democratic in the gubernatorial contest.
Among the surrounding suburban and rural counties, the starkness was very evident, but focus on the Cooper's performance in each:
Unlike the central cities, the surrounding suburban counties went two-to-one Republican, yet Cooper was able to eat into the Republican advantage by just a few points. In the rural counties, they weren't as Republican as the suburban counties, but again, Cooper kept the margins slightly closer, allowing McCrory only 58 percent of the vote compared to Trump's and Burr's 60 percent.
Four years later, the 2020 "Big 3" saw Trump in his re-election bid, along with Tillis and Cooper seeking re-election. This time, the urban counties shifted compared to 2016's electoral performances:
The Democratic dominance went to 70-30, with Cooper scoring 73 percent, the highest of the Democratic three candidates. The urban suburbs went more Republican, but still competitive, with Cooper keeping the margin as close as possible at 51-49 to Forest, when Trump and Tillis went 54-55.
Among the suburban and rural counties in 2020, the suburban counties saw a bit of deflated Republican strength, going from 66 percent down to 64 percent for Trump and Tillis, but Cooper kept Forest's performance down to 61 percent, while also keeping Forest below 60 percent in rural N.C. counties.
For 2026, one of the important factors in the political environment will be this geographic dynamic, along with the general 'mood' of the state and country. Can Cooper continue his electoral streak of dominating the central cities, keeping the urban suburbs competitive, and appealing--by just a few percentage points--in the surrounding suburban and rural counties to deliver Democrats their first federal statewide win since Obama & Hagan in 2008?
Over the next year-and-a-half, we'll find out how lopsided and competitive each of the regions are.
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Dr. Michael Bitzer directs the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service and holds the Leonard Chair of Political Science at Catawba College.
