By Michael Bitzer, Susan Roberts, and Christopher Cooper
To say that the world of NC politics has been abuzz with news in the past 24 hours is like saying "it's summer...so it's hot in the Old North State." An understatement, to say the least.
On July 23rd, press reports started with Axios, later confirmed by other outlets, that former N.C. governor Roy Cooper has decided to run for the U.S. Senate, a major 'get' for Democrats in what is likely one of the most competitive races for the 2026 mid-term.
The next morning had Politico reporting Lara Trump was out, but Michael Whatley, RNC chair, was in, with Trump's blessing.
This sets up what everyone had been expecting: a potential clearing of primary field on both sides (at least expected) with two titans running for a coveted open-seat election. Here's our initial "3 Big Thoughts" as we digest and think about this epic contest:
Bitzer's Big 3:
1. With all the news now (and nobody wants to hear this), but it’s still early in the mid-term electoral game. Even with the past two days’ worth of political news in N.C., we’ve got three months until candidate filing begins, eight months until the March 3, 2026, primary that will decide the party’s nominees, and fifteen months until November 2026’s general election. And while we're awaiting the 'formal' announcements from the big two (Cooper & Whatley), a lot can happen over the next fifteen months. But here's some other things I’ll be thinking about.
2. How do the campaigns approach the 4 Ts? With Cooper, Whatley, Nickle, and perhaps whoever else decides to enter the ring, what will be their four Ts to a campaign: timing, target, tone, and theme? Timing has already kicked off, with several anticipated to be in the fray (awaiting Cooper’s and Whatley’s formal announcements, with Nickle already in campaign mode, and perhaps others contemplating (see Chris’s thoughts), so we move on to the other three.
Who will be the targets of each primary candidates’ campaign? For Whatley, it’s easy: the MAGA-base of the NC GOP that dominates the primary electorate already (see Budd/Walker 2022 US Senate contest and Robinson’s 2024 gubernatorial contest). For Cooper, he will certainly garner the loyalty of the Democratic base, but for both candidates as likely front-runners, who will attract the unaffiliated registered primary voter in March? And then beyond with the general election voter targets?
What will the tone be of each candidate? Mid-terms are notoriously (and well-documented in this age of nationalized politics) detrimental to the president’s party. Economics always plays a key factor in voters’ decision-making, so how will the front-runners position themselves with the tone of their campaign: positively? Negative? Reactively? Aggressive against the other party?
And connected with tone is what will be the campaigns’ themes? For Democrats, it’s pretty much written for them—against Trump and his administration and Congressional Republicans, a classic opposition party theme for a mid-term election. For Republicans, based on what the popularity/approval ratings will be of the president a year from now, will they stick to the loyalty to the president and double-down on him and his policies (no matter the public opinion next fall), or will a time come that they have to subtly break ranks, potentially causing a rift with the president?
3. Finally, who is up and who is down in approval over the next 15 months? Of course, if they secure their party nominations, Cooper and Whatley will be ones to watch for their approval/disapproval ratings from North Carolinians, especially with independents and particularly with ‘pure independents’ (which excludes indies who lean to one party over the other). But just as importantly: what will the approval rating of Trump be a year from now? Next August usually sees most political and voter minds get solidified before going into the September general campaign.
Cooper's Big 3:
1. Maybe, just maybe, the field isn't completely filled out. I get it. The (overwhelming) odds are that we are going to end up with a Cooper-Whatley General Election. But, as popular as they both are with their respective parties, they do not come without detractors.
Whatley has often come under fire from the for-right of the party--the group of people who refers to themselves as the "grassroots." It's certainly possible that they could field a candidate that they believe would challenge the Republican establishment. And, let's not forget that Don Brown and Andy Nilsson are already in this race and may fill that role. I don't expect either of them to beat Whatley (and I don't think anyone else does, either), but if they serve as mouthpieces for discontent, it could still be something to watch.
The Democratic Party appears more united around Cooper, but there's still the possibility that another candidate will get in the race. Last week, a spokesperson for Don Davis, Representative from North Carolina's first congressional district, indicated that he is "looking at all options and not ruling anything out." Sure, Cooper had not declared when Davis made this statement, but the rumor mill indicated that it was likely, if not guaranteed that Cooper would enter--certainly Davis knew that. While I doubt Davis, or anyone else prominent will enter, I also didn't expect that Mike Morgan would challenge Josh Stein for Governor in 2024, either.
And, of course, there's always the question of Wiley Nickel, who has been in the Senate race for months and raised over 2.9 Million last quarter alone. I expect that he will, like Geddy Lee, exit stage left, but nothing is certain in electoral politics--especially with no obvious next office for Nickel.
Zooming back out, I do expect that Cooper is, for the most part, a field-clearing candidate. And, thanks to Trump's endorsement, Whatley may be the same. But there's always a possibility--especially on the Republican side--that we haven't seen the last prominent candidate enter the race. After all, we have not seen just two candidates in a US Senate election in North Carolina since 1986.
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2. The Race Will be Close. And Expensive. But Don't Expect the Candidates Themselves to Generate a Ton of Headlines.
North Carolina will, undoubtedly, be one of the most (if not the most) hotly contested and expensive races in the country. And, as a result, it will generate more than its share of news. But, don't expect Roy Cooper or Michael Whatley to fan the flames of coverage that way that some candidates do today. In the old parlance, Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley tend to be work-horses more than show-horses. They don't exactly shy away from the camera, but anyone looking for a candidate who generates headlines in the way that an AOC or MTG do, should look elsewhere.
For his part, Roy Cooper has a political delivery that has been compared to Mr. Rogers--articulate, affable, but not exactly bombastic. Michael Whatley has made his career behind the scenes more than in front of the camera and, even among the class of political operatives, doesn't have a lot in common with people like Roger Stone who generate media coverage by making outlandish statements and having outlandish tattoos.
None of this means that they are not effective politicians--just that the drama in this election is likely to come from the stakes rather than the candidates themselves.
3. Winning North Carolina is a Necessary, but Not a Sufficient Condition for a Democratic Majority.
By scanning the funhouse mirror that is social media, you might think that Roy Cooper's (non) announcement (let's remember, the guy has not announced anything yet and the Axios story that broke the news has zero named sources) guarantees that North Carolina will flip and the Republican majority will fall at the same time. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Even if Cooper wins North Carolina (by no means a guarantee), a Democratic majority would require the Democrats to: hold onto all of the solid Democratic seats (CO, DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA), hold onto some tougher seats in GA, MI, MN, and NH, flip Maine and flip two more seat from a list of states that includes AL, AR, FL, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, OH, OK, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY. For a similar characterization of these races, see the Cook Political Report's 2026 CPR Senate Race ratings.
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| 2026 Elections in U.S. Senate |
It's not impossible that they will pull it off, but the odds of success do not equate to the number of blue wave emojis that have populated my social media feeds since the news of Cooper's non-announcement.
Roberts' Big 3:
1. Cooper’s visibility and the ‘purple’ nature of this state almost guarantees this will continue the pattern of North Carolina being the most expensive Senate race in the country. Doubtless, it will be seen as the pivotal Senate race as well as the most closely watched in the nation. It’s critical for Democrats to flip North Carolina’s seat to even begin to claw their way back to majority status.
2. But for me, a question remains: in the age of partisanship antipathy, could any Democrat win in NC at the federal level, especially Cooper? He hasn’t been flamboyant, nor has he had a reputation of decidedly anti-GOP. Granted, he has the proven track record of winning state-wide from 2000 to 2020, an impressive feat, but Democrats have only won two federal contests in that same time period in North Carolina: 2008’s U.S. presidential and Senate elections.
3. Finally, regardless who the GOP nominee is, will the GOP primary will be costly, and as primaries go, will candidates trying to out Trump one another? With news of Michael Whatley’s decision to jump into the race, with Trump’s blessing, will other Republicans see this as an opportunity for them—maybe not to ultimately win against Trump’s preferred candidate, but rather set their sights and ambitions to future state-wide contests and build their own name recognition?
