By Susan Roberts
As my colleagues at the ONSP Blog have written and observed, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race will turn out to be hugely expensive, perhaps the most expensive in the country if history repeats itself. One of many questions to ask is: are the candidates diametrically opposed and in what ways? Here are some ways that I’m considering how this critical race will play itself out heading towards November 2026.
The Midterm Cycle Divide
Characteristics of midterm elections are widely recognized. Turnout is routinely lower, while voters of higher socioeconomic classifications tend to dominate. In general, mid-term voters are most often strong partisans and highly attuned to politics. Most political scientists, journalists and pundits would agree that midterms can be seen as a referendum on presidential performance, measured primarily by the number of seats won or lost by the party of the sitting president.
Without doing a deep dive into theories of midterm elections, suffice to say that the party of the sitting President tends to lose seats in both the House and the Senate. In a recent assessment in Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Center for Politics, the results of midterms from 1946 to 2022 show an average presidential party loss of 25.8 seats in the House and 3.6 seats in the Senate. Much of this is dependent on the president’s approval at the time. A Catawba College/You-Gov poll of 1,000 North Carolinians from mid-June shows Trump with 50% disapproval and 46% approval in the state.
How this plays out for NC 2026 Senate remains to be seen. Republican Michael Whatley’s candidacy is predominantly a product of Trump’s staunch endorsement and Whatley’s extensive party service. As of July 24, Gallup polling shows Trump’s approval rating 37%, representing a 10 % drop since the beginning of his second term. Additionally, analysis by Gallup sees this decline driven in large part by Independents.
All of this would suggest that Whatley’s chances would be heavily impacted by Trump’s approval ratings, especially given Whatley has Trump’s hearty endorsement even before he announced. In addition, it is difficult to assess to what degree the Jeffrey Epstein controversy will have on Trump’s approval rating and what the half-life of this issue will be.
The Outsider v. Insider Divide
Here’s where it might get tricky. Before his formal announcement, it was not clear how Whatley is going to frame his candidacy. With years of work in a variety of capacities in Republican politics, Whatley is clearly an party insider. Out of the spotlight in Bush’s Florida recount team to more visible appointments in the Bush and Dole administrations, Whatley has gone on to GOP partisan politics, leading the NC Republican Party and most recently the RNC. His is a political resume of appointed not elected positions. Even before his formal announcement, Whatley could add to his resume of appointed positions the claim of the candidate anointed by Trump as the person for the Senate and the nation.
On the other hand, Roy Cooper’s political career is unambiguously elected not appointed. From the NC State House to the State Senate, to the office of Attorney General for 16 years, to a two-term governor, Cooper has been a visible public servant. From multiple vantage points, Roy Cooper could be labelled a veteran insider in terms of holding elected office. As Cooper said in his announcement, he “never really wanted to go to Washington,” but he felt national circumstance necessitated it.
In essence, neither candidate can play a simple insider-outsider card. While it seems confusing, both could claim outsider status, a refrain voters have often heard. On the Republican side former candidate Lt. Governor candidate Andy Nilsson and former congressional candidate Dan Brown remain on the ballot, but their impact will negligible. Both are clearly pure “outsider candidates.” But beyond each party’s primary, Whatley is a Washington insider and Cooper is a Washington outsider. Whatley is an outsider to elected office and Cooper is an insider to elected office.
The “Who’s He?” Divide
Michael Whatley faces a stark divide in terms of name recognition. Always a factor, this is critically important in any election. Roy Cooper beats Whatley hands down in name recognition. With roughly a year and a half before the election, state and national Republicans will forefront this liability. Candidates typically run “bio ads” early in their campaigns. Cooper needs absolutely no concern here, and Whatley has a decidedly uphill battle.
Given the very early stage of this Senate race, there hasn’t been any polling on familiarity with the candidate nor approval or disapproval. Despite the lack of polling, Cooper has a distinct advantage, one difficult if not impossible to overcome. In the end, name recognition might be one between Roy Cooper versus Michael Whatley as simply “the Trump candidate.”
With both Cooper and Whatley having made their formal announcements, the question as to how they will frame themselves becomes clear. For Cooper, the emphasis was on the middle class and was grounded in this lifetime of serving the people and the state of North Carolina. As expected, Whatley anchored his announcement touting his close relationship with Trump and the wholehearted hearted and enthusiastic endorsement he received. Doubtless, he will insert what he sees as Cooper’s absence of leadership to Western North Carolina in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
These announcements may well set the tone for the entire campaign. Replete with effective visuals highlighting his family, faith and service, Cooper made no mention of Trump or Whatley. Whatley, on the other hand, had a more typical rally introduction of his candidacy, presenting himself as someone who will further Trump’s mission, focusing the ways in which North Carolina will thrive with his leadership and the guidance of Trump.
The Red v. Blue Divide
Arguably, any political discussion of North Carolina begins with two questions. Is NC red, blue, or purple? Is NC a swing state or a battleground state? As evidence of North Carolina’s purple status, political observers point to changing demographics such as the composition of the electorate and the urban-rural divide.
My colleagues and fellow blog authors, Drs. Christopher Cooper and Michael Bitzer, have extensively analyzed this great partisan divide in North Carolina, due to the growing regionalism of the state. Michael’s earlier piece on Cooper’s entry and his geographic electoral coalition shows how Cooper peeled off Republican levels in the surrounding suburban and rural counties in the governor’s 2016 and 2020 elections. Chris’s important book, The Anatomy of a Purple State, documents the “central fault line that can help explain election outcomes and governance choices” (page 34) of the urban-rural divide, as noted in this graph from Chapter 3:
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| Courtesy of Dr. Christopher Cooper |
The shortcut of the color wheel notwithstanding, this Senate race will be set by predictable policy and culture war arenas. Using Cooper’s record as governor, the menu of agenda items will focus on questions on voting laws, transgender issues, access to abortion, ideology, public education, LGBTQ concerns and gun laws to name a few. Additionally, highlighting the hefty number of Cooper’s vetoes of Republican sponsored legislation gives even more fodder for Whatley and the Republicans to paint Cooper as anything but purple.
If not pivotal, the stakes of this Senate election are high. Colors aside, North Carolina is one of three states rated tossup for 2026 with the others being Georgia and Michigan. Even if the Democrats win this Senate seat, they will have to flip three additional to assume control of the Senate.
The National or North Carolina Divide
Former speaker of the U.S. House “Tip” O’Neil’s adage that all politics is local has limited validity today. Measured by both the issues and the financing of campaigns, no political race is immune from the national context. The collection of topics deemed the “culture wars” permeate all federal, state and local elections. The proverbial “hot button” issues have become increasingly delegate to the states.
The nationalization of campaign funding has become the norm and draws limited attention. According to Open Secrets, Thom Tillis received only 25% of his funds from North Carolia, with national median of in-state contributions at 38%. Billed a marquee Senate race in a purple state, it is clear out of state monies will be at or above these numbers for the Whatley-Cooper contest.
The tenor of the race was clearly revealed in the Republican release of an ad titled “Radical Roy” which according to Danielle Battaglia of The News & Observer, was “less than 60 seconds” following Cooper’s announcement. You can expect to see future ads featuring Roy Cooper stumping for Kamala Harris and more importantly, footage of Cooper’s closing endorsement of Harris at the Democratic National Convention. It remains to be seen how Cooper will frame his campaign vis a vis a frontal attack on President Trump, but we got a good glimpse from Cooper's campaign manager, Jeff Allen, who defined Whatley as "big oil lobbyist" and his career as a Beltway insider.
The Western v. Eastern Divide?
Of course there will be the inevitable and most least consequential comparison – namely the BBQ wars. Which is best the Piedmont-Western tomato based, or the Eastern vinegar based? No candidate dares not tread on this fault line, one roughly equivalent Chapel Hill versus Duke divide, perhaps the deeper rivalry. There is no sports competition between Whatley’s UNC-C degree and Cooper’s UNC-CH degree.
Much more politically significant might be the rural versus urban divide. This split won’t work in terms of birthplace or early years. Nash County is arguably as rural as Watauga County, meaning this card is out.
Conclusion and Caveats
The contours of the 2026 Senate race in North Carolina brings little new ground to both political observers and North Carolinians themselves. First, North Carolinians have grown accustomed to the marquee moniker of their Senate elections, perhaps to the point of being jaded. Second, observers and North Carolinians expect this to be if not one of the most expensive Senate races in the country. Third, the 2022 midterm elections and predictions familiarized many Americans with the theory of midterm elections and the anticipated “red wave” that didn’t quite materialize.
The two divides most relevant to the Senate showdown between Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley may well be the “insider – outsider divide” and the “who’s he” divide. In essence, they are proxies. The “insider – outsider” divide is a proxy for one’s basic and bedrock orientation to politics. The “who’s he” divide is a proxy for one’s assessment of the reach and the raw power of the Trump presidency. The dynamics of a Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley matchup won’t be all different from other Senate races.
The bottom line? Roy Cooper is an experienced candidate, and Michael Whatley is an experienced operative and fundraiser. What will it take to win the Senate race? Once again, the most important caveat is that a year and a half seems like a lifetime in electoral politics as well as one that will be here in the blink of an eye.
