Thursday, September 29, 2016

Analysis of 9-29-16 NC Absentee Mail-In Ballots

With today's (9-29-16) report from the NC State Board of Elections, over 78,500 North Carolinians have requested absentee mail-in ballots, with over 10,000 of them returning their ballots and being accepted as votes for November's election.

Of the total requested ballots so far, 38 percent are from registered Republican voters, 34 percent from registered Democrats, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than one percent from registered Libertarians. While Republicans are leading among the requested ballots, Democrats continue to lead in returning and having their ballots accepted for November:

Among returned and accepted mail-in ballots, 40 percent are from registered Democrats, 35 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. In comparing these numbers to the same-day before the 2012 election day, the total returned accepted ballots are 108 percent of where ballots were the same day four years ago. 

Registered unaffiliated voters are the strongest 'over-performers', with their numbers at 141 percent of their same day totals; registered Democrats are 138 percent of where they were in 2012, and registered Republicans are 77 percent of their 2012 numbers on the same day. The accepted rate (the number of accepted ballots to the requested ballots) is 16 percent for registered Democrats, 14 percent for both the total numbers and registered Libertarians, 13 percent for registered Republicans, and 12 percent for registered unaffiliated voters.

Among those ballots still outstanding and not returned: