Sunday, September 28, 2014

Interesting comparisons between voting methods in 2010 and 2014

In looking deeper into the mail-in ballots requests so far this year, one of the questions that has been surrounding this data is, "how did the voters, who are requesting mail-in ballots this year, cast their ballots in 2010's election?"  With the new voting laws (currently under legal challenge) having shortened the in-person absentee voting (in terms of days, but not hours), would the likelihood be that some voters who used in-person absentee voting or even waiting until Election Day to cast their ballots utilize mail-in absentee balloting this year?

Among the 16,849 requested ballots so far this year, I was able to merge that data with the 2010 voter history data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections and connect this year's voters' records with their 2010 voting records.

From these data, we're seeing a shift by voters to utilizing mail-in absentee balloting: four years ago, 60 percent of this year's voters (who are voting by mail) were either in-person absentee voters, in-person on Election Day, or some other method of casting their ballots.

For each of the registered party affiliation, here are the breakdowns:

For registered Democrats:

For registered Republicans:

For registered unaffiliated voters:

One other interesting trend: I compared the voters' registration to a party in 2010 to what their party registration is in 2014.

While registered Democrats saw 86 voters change their registration from being Democrat in 2010 to something else in 2014 (30 switched to GOP and 56 to unaffiliated) and registered Republicans saw 216 change from being GOP in 2010 to something else in 2014 (145 switched to Democratic registration and 71 to unaffiliated), it was unaffiliated voters who saw the biggest number of 'defections' from their ranks: 341, with 197 going to register Democratic and 144 to registered Republican.