Monday, September 29, 2014

36 Days and Counting to NC's General Election

We're now down to 36 days and counting to the general election in North Carolina, and the continued trend of registered Democrats requesting and returning their mail-in absentee ballots holds.

Of the 16,849 requested ballots sent out:

  • registered Democrats are 41%
  • registered Republicans are 35%
  • registered unaffiliated voters are 23%
  • female voters are 55%
  • white voters are 83%
  • black voters are 12%
In comparison to the 2010 election cycle, and using the days 43-39 out from Election Day for both years, we see a drop-off in comparing this year's to 2010, but Democrats should be pleased with their advantage over Republicans at this point in requested ballots:

From these 16,849 ballots requested so far this year, 2,653 ballots (16% of requested) have been returned and accepted as votes for the general election.

Of these returned and accepted ballots:

  • registered Democrats are 46%
  • registered Republicans are 34%
  • registered Unaffiliated are 20%
  • women are 53%, men are 46%
  • white voters are 80%
  • black voters are 15%
In comparing this year's cumulative returned and accepted mail-in ballots by party registration to the same days prior to the 2010 general election, the trends over the past few days have continued.

From the 40th day to the 39th day, registered Democrats increased their total 10%, while registered unaffiliated voters increased 9% and registered Republicans increased their total 6% (note: days 38 and 37 are Saturday and Sunday) (addendum: Days 38 and 37 are Saturday and Sunday, with no processing done until we get closer to Election Day, thus the flat lines on 38 & 37)

One question that has arisen in looking at these numbers has been, are these voters who voted via mail-in ballots in 2010 or did these North Carolinians use other voting methods to cast their ballots in 2010?  

By matching up the voters' records of how they cast ballots in 2010 to this year's mail-in ballots, we see a significant majority of early voters so far did not use mail-in, but either in-person (absentee or on Election Day).  It will be interesting to continue to watch this aspect of the data.