Since we’re wrapping up early voting in North Carolina before the general election, here are some statistics that folks may find of interest:
· 2008: percentage of total absentee ballots cast of registered voters: 42
· 2010: percentage of total absentee ballots cast of registered voters (so far): 11.9
· Of all 2008 early votes cast, 51% were by registered Democrats, 30% by registered Republicans, and 18% by unaffiliated voters.
· Of all 2010 early votes cast (so far), 45% are by registered Democrats, 37% by registered Republicans, and 17% by registered unaffiliated voters.
This means, to me, that Republicans learned the Obama lesson of 2008 and are using early voting to bank core supporters—meaning that they are outperforming their state-wide voter registration figure of 32%. Along with the energy and enthusiasm levels of Republicans, this is a serious dent in Democrats’ performance from just two years ago.
Mecklenburg County is seeing an overperformance by registered Republicans to cast their votes (39% of early votes cast in Mecklenburg are from registered Republicans, who make up 28% of the voters), while Democratic voters are underperforming (registered Democrats make up 43%, compared to 46% of all registered voters). Especially noteworthy is that unaffiliated voters are significantly underperforming, making up only 18% of the early votes cast, compared to making up 26% of the registered voters in the county.
We know from the past exit polls that if you say you are identify with one party or the other, you will vote that way 89-93% of the time in NC (slightly higher levels for Reps than Dems, but still 9 in 10 times you vote that way). And independent (unaffiliated) voters voted 57/40 Rep/Dem in 06 and 53/45 Rep/Dem in 08. My bet this year is that independent voters break 60/40 Rep/Dem, so if that trend hold, Republicans may be making sufficient ground to overcome Democratic voter registration and patterns in a number of key races in the state.
In terms of voting by specific groups on a state-wide basis:
· Women who cast early vote in 08: 55% were registered Democrats, 28% were registered Republicans, and 17% were registered unaffiliated voters.
· Women who are casting early votes so far in 10: 51% registered Democrats, 35% registered Republicans, and 15% registered unaffiliated voters.
· Men who are casting early votes in 08: 47% registered Democrats, 33% registered Republicans, and 20% registered unaffiliated voters.
· Men who are casting early votes so far in 10: 40% registered Democrats, 40% registered Republicans, and 19% registered unaffiliated voters.
There appears, from the early voting patterns, to be a definite “gender gap” going on, but Republican women are making inroads within female voters. Registered male voters are definitely going back to their usual ways, which is Republican.
· White voters state-wide who cast early votes in 2008: 37% were registered Democrats, 42% registered Republicans, and 21% were registered unaffiliated voters.
· White voters who are casting early votes so far in 10 state-wide: 34% registered Democrats, 47% registered Republicans, and 19% registered unaffiliated voters. They make up 78% of all the early votes cast so far.
· Black voters state-wide who cast early votes in 2008: 89% were registered Democrats, 2% were registered Republicans, and 9 % were registered unaffiliated.
· Black voters who are casting early votes so far in 10 state-wide: 92% are registered Democrats, 1% registered Republicans, and 6% are registered unaffiliated. They make up 19% of all the early votes cast so far.
Of course, we won't know what these specific votes are until Tuesday, but I think with the typical party identification associated with voting preferences, we may be seeing the early waves of the expected Republican landslide. And these could be warning signs for conservative Democrats like Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre, and Heath Shuler.
