Deep Dive into the Demographic Dynamics of NC's Districts: Volume 2--NC's State Senate

In the previous post, I looked at the dynamics of voter registration within North Carolina's 13 congressional districts. This post begins a two-part review and analysis of the state's General Assembly districts, first with the 50 districts in the state senate. With much of the attention being paid to NC's congressional districts in this "blue-moon" election cycle, the state legislative races will command state-wide attention, with the Democrats attempting to at least break the Republican's super-majority numbers in both chambers.

The map of the most recently approved upper chamber districts:

Like with the congressional districts, this analysis looks at five demographic aspects for each district: the district's percentage of party registration, the percentage of race and ethnicity of voters, the percentage of the district that is urban, suburban, and/or rural, the breakdown by generations within the district, and the gender divide within registered voters.  All of the data comes from the North Carolina State Board of Election's voter registration file that was released on March 3, 2018.

If this mid-term election becomes an environment that moves against Republicans, it will most likely be due to increased voter turnout among Democrats with depressed levels of Republican turnout, along with more minority, young, and female voters showing up than in a normal mid-term election. We may also see more urban voters turning out, thus the five categories that will be analyzed in each district.

Party Registration:

With a state-wide partisan composition of the 6.8 million registered voters of 39 percent registered Democrat, 31 percent registered unaffiliated, and 30 percent registered Republican (Libertarians are less than 1 percent of the total votes), the partisan compositions of each of the 50 senate districts among the voters are:

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate District	Registered Democrat	Registered Unaffiliated	Registered Republican	Registered Libertarian
R	1	61,847	44,982	35,021	723
R	2	38,835	40,780	48,821	621
D	3	72,599	25,110	23,177	280
D	4	81,003	25,544	24,521	316
D	5	61,903	36,391	33,850	732
R	6	30,954	40,041	39,664	916
R	7	52,974	25,815	33,160	404
R	8	55,689	53,729	55,798	664
R	9	49,186	58,609	52,338	1,114
R	10	44,748	25,558	35,584	387
R	11	54,978	38,833	49,494	661
R	12	43,015	33,814	39,031	711
R	13	69,506	24,771	16,958	257
D	14	70,803	43,891	25,473	712
R	15	66,874	52,604	26,419	1,074
D	16	51,384	65,566	40,221	1,111
R	17	43,765	56,657	53,732	1,046
R	18	52,064	51,148	55,819	866
R	19	54,716	39,328	34,132	639
D	20	87,000	48,833	16,966	748
D	21	58,100	35,459	21,527	675
D	22	65,353	37,865	26,973	557
D	23	72,461	61,032	29,669	947
R	24	52,244	38,185	45,375	637
R	25	57,223	39,046	38,917	478
R	26	37,220	33,760	51,015	552
R	27	50,987	43,373	52,724	752
D	28	83,233	40,716	23,618	685
R	29	33,881	33,739	54,831	507
R	30	44,648	34,018	48,033	459
R	31	38,066	44,391	65,462	681
D	32	71,516	37,717	25,264	654
R	33	38,986	39,176	56,035	520
R	34	34,135	44,982	62,087	628
R	35	37,554	45,844	58,063	632
R	36	42,590	45,406	53,503	766
D	37	75,992	44,455	22,088	1,115
D	38	82,061	38,111	18,301	685
R	39	38,225	51,044	59,390	743
D	40	68,030	35,883	20,204	699
R	41	49,272	55,919	49,868	1,028
R	42	32,082	39,606	54,780	487
R	43	42,770	40,621	51,190	637
R	44	41,853	36,698	48,503	528
R	45	37,340	43,472	56,495	795
R	46	33,874	37,258	51,847	662
R	47	40,163	40,923	48,830	617
R	48	36,409	57,504	50,894	824
D	49	62,473	56,126	34,318	1,093
R	50	46,590	47,725	49,631	753
	State	2,649,174	2,112,058	2,069,614	34,778

With the percentages within each state senate district being:

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate District	Registered Democrat	Registered Unaffiliated	Registered Republican
R	1	43%	32%	25%
R	2	30%	32%	38%
D	3	60%	21%	19%
D	4	62%	19%	19%
D	5	47%	27%	25%
R	6	28%	36%	36%
R	7	47%	23%	30%
R	8	34%	32%	34%
R	9	31%	36%	32%
R	10	42%	24%	33%
R	11	38%	27%	34%
R	12	37%	29%	33%
R	13	62%	22%	15%
D	14	50%	31%	18%
R	15	46%	36%	18%
D	16	32%	41%	25%
R	17	28%	37%	35%
R	18	33%	32%	35%
R	19	42%	31%	26%
D	20	57%	32%	11%
D	21	50%	31%	19%
D	22	50%	29%	21%
D	23	44%	37%	18%
R	24	38%	28%	33%
R	25	42%	29%	29%
R	26	30%	28%	42%
R	27	34%	29%	36%
D	28	56%	27%	16%
R	29	28%	27%	45%
R	30	35%	27%	38%
R	31	26%	30%	44%
D	32	53%	28%	19%
R	33	29%	29%	42%
R	34	24%	32%	44%
R	35	26%	32%	41%
R	36	30%	32%	38%
D	37	53%	31%	15%
D	38	59%	27%	13%
R	39	26%	34%	40%
D	40	55%	29%	16%
R	41	32%	36%	32%
R	42	25%	31%	43%
R	43	32%	30%	38%
R	44	33%	29%	38%
R	45	27%	31%	41%
R	46	27%	30%	42%
R	47	31%	31%	37%
R	48	25%	39%	35%
D	49	41%	36%	22%
R	50	32%	33%	34%
	State	39%	31%	30%

Twenty-one state senate districts hold Republican registration percentages at or above 35 percent, with twenty-nine districts below 35 percent; many political observers have noted that when a district hits 35 percent registered Republicans, the "flip" from Democratic to Republican leaning happens. Six districts are currently held by Republican incumbents but have less than 30 percent registered Republicans that is the GOP's state-wide average (districts 7, 25, 19, 1, 15, and 13, in descending order of GOP registration percentage). These may be key senate districts to watch this fall, if the potential Democratic wave is large enough in the state and Republican enthusiasm is dampened beyond their normal mid-term turnout advantage in the state.

Race and Ethnicity:

In terms of race and ethnicity within the state senate districts:

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate District	White Non-Hispanic Voter	Black or African-American Voter	Hispanic‎/Latino Voter	All other races‎/ ethnicities‎/unknown
R	1	99,441	37,251	850	5,030
R	2	102,392	19,410	1,852	5,403
D	3	60,499	55,199	931	4,537
D	4	57,286	66,672	1,581	5,845
D	5	76,963	46,497	2,666	6,750
R	6	77,917	21,183	5,091	7,384
R	7	63,199	41,455	2,461	5,238
R	8	130,181	26,810	2,090	6,799
R	9	130,398	18,227	2,527	10,095
R	10	68,798	28,437	4,633	4,409
R	11	96,440	37,472	3,557	6,497
R	12	79,454	25,151	5,289	6,677
R	13	45,719	32,829	1,494	31,450
D	14	62,425	56,319	6,430	15,705
R	15	83,431	40,586	4,830	18,124
D	16	108,099	17,508	4,819	27,856
R	17	121,650	15,880	4,233	13,437
R	18	121,505	23,538	3,301	11,553
R	19	66,994	44,007	5,532	12,282
D	20	69,536	61,105	5,176	17,730
D	21	39,850	56,061	7,053	12,796
D	22	79,429	39,752	2,891	8,676
D	23	121,460	19,324	4,764	18,561
R	24	95,180	30,822	3,448	6,991
R	25	91,026	34,694	1,507	8,437
R	26	90,425	22,916	3,635	5,571
R	27	104,757	30,053	3,414	9,612
D	28	63,353	70,043	3,245	11,611
R	29	102,883	13,495	2,137	4,443
R	30	101,572	19,671	1,556	4,359
R	31	124,679	14,046	2,963	6,912
D	32	62,580	57,349	5,725	9,497
R	33	106,561	21,074	1,918	5,164
R	34	118,803	14,611	3,229	5,189
R	35	110,716	18,237	5,177	7,963
R	36	104,908	24,334	4,261	8,762
D	37	65,398	61,477	5,504	11,271
D	38	42,562	78,472	5,290	12,834
R	39	124,580	10,529	3,501	10,792
D	40	48,625	57,299	7,474	11,418
R	41	111,025	25,524	6,363	13,175
R	42	108,169	10,245	2,735	5,806
R	43	102,501	22,908	2,986	6,823
R	44	103,686	17,734	1,898	4,264
R	45	128,188	3,401	2,635	3,878
R	46	112,025	6,353	1,528	3,735
R	47	119,407	6,339	1,286	3,501
R	48	131,775	4,955	2,539	6,362
D	49	132,967	9,208	2,472	9,363
R	50	133,698	1,680	1,358	7,963
Total	State	4,705,115	1,518,142	173,835	468,530

And by percentages:

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate District	White Non-Hispanic Voter	Black or African-American Voter	Hispanic‎/ Latino Voter	All other races‎/ ethnicities‎/ unknown
R	1	70%	26%	1%	4%
R	2	79%	15%	1%	4%
D	3	50%	46%	1%	4%
D	4	44%	51%	1%	4%
D	5	58%	35%	2%	5%
R	6	70%	19%	5%	7%
R	7	56%	37%	2%	5%
R	8	78%	16%	1%	4%
R	9	81%	11%	2%	6%
R	10	65%	27%	4%	4%
R	11	67%	26%	2%	5%
R	12	68%	22%	5%	6%
R	13	41%	29%	1%	28%
D	14	44%	40%	5%	11%
R	15	57%	28%	3%	12%
D	16	68%	11%	3%	18%
R	17	78%	10%	3%	9%
R	18	76%	15%	2%	7%
R	19	52%	34%	4%	10%
D	20	45%	40%	3%	12%
D	21	34%	48%	6%	11%
D	22	61%	30%	2%	7%
D	23	74%	12%	3%	11%
R	24	70%	23%	3%	5%
R	25	67%	26%	1%	6%
R	26	74%	19%	3%	5%
R	27	71%	20%	2%	7%
D	28	43%	47%	2%	8%
R	29	84%	11%	2%	4%
R	30	80%	15%	1%	3%
R	31	84%	9%	2%	5%
D	32	46%	42%	4%	7%
R	33	79%	16%	1%	4%
R	34	84%	10%	2%	4%
R	35	78%	13%	4%	6%
R	36	74%	17%	3%	6%
D	37	46%	43%	4%	8%
D	38	31%	56%	4%	9%
R	39	83%	7%	2%	7%
D	40	39%	46%	6%	9%
R	41	71%	16%	4%	8%
R	42	85%	8%	2%	5%
R	43	76%	17%	2%	5%
R	44	81%	14%	1%	3%
R	45	93%	2%	2%	3%
R	46	91%	5%	1%	3%
R	47	91%	5%	1%	3%
R	48	90%	3%	2%	4%
D	49	86%	6%	2%	6%
R	50	92%	1%	1%	6%
	State	69%	22%	3%	7%

With the 69 percent of state's voters being white and non-Hispanic, eight Republican-held senate districts are below that percentage: 12, 25, 11, 10, 15, 7, 19, and 13, in descending order. Four of these districts are also below the mythical 35 percent registered Republican mark, again making them potentially important districts to watch come November with two categories that may be against Republicans in this year's electoral climate. 

Regionalism (Urban, Suburban, and Rural):

Looking at the districts through a regional view, namely the percentage of voters living in an urban, suburban, and/or rural county:

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate District	Urban County Voter	Suburban County Voter	Rural County Voter
R	1	-	-	142,573
R	2	67,692	9,588	51,777
D	3	-	-	121,166
D	4	38,079	-	93,305
D	5	121,561	-	11,315
R	6	104,380	7,195	-
R	7	74,071	-	38,282
R	8	4,762	138,490	22,628
R	9	161,247	-	-
R	10	-	38,434	67,843
R	11	65,650	78,316	-
R	12	-	7,086	109,485
R	13	-	-	111,492
D	14	140,879	-	-
R	15	146,971	-	-
D	16	158,282	-	-
R	17	155,200	-	-
R	18	116,556	43,341	-
R	19	128,815	-	-
D	20	153,547	-	-
D	21	84,056	31,705	-
D	22	66,072	26,484	38,192
D	23	112,329	51,780	-
R	24	136,441	-	-
R	25	-	17,225	118,439
R	26	32,056	90,491	-
R	27	147,836	-	-
D	28	148,252	-	-
R	29	-	-	122,958
R	30	-	90,382	36,776
R	31	119,202	29,398	-
D	32	135,151	-	-
R	33	-	93,791	40,926
R	34	-	141,832	-
R	35	-	142,093	-
R	36	-	142,265	-
D	37	143,650	-	-
D	38	139,158	-	-
R	39	149,402	-	-
D	40	124,816	-	-
R	41	156,087	-	-
R	42	102,852	24,103	-
R	43	-	135,218	-
R	44	-	6,605	120,977
R	45	-	-	138,102
R	46	112,000	-	11,641
R	47	-	16,727	113,806
R	48	37,268	82,988	25,375
D	49	154,010	-	-
R	50	-	43,731	100,968
Total	State	3,738,330	1,489,268	1,638,026

And by percentages:

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate District	Urban County Voters	Suburban County Voters	Rural County Voters
R	1	0%	0%	100%
R	2	52%	7%	40%
D	3	0%	0%	100%
D	4	29%	0%	71%
D	5	91%	0%	9%
R	6	94%	6%	0%
R	7	66%	0%	34%
R	8	3%	83%	14%
R	9	100%	0%	0%
R	10	0%	36%	64%
R	11	46%	54%	0%
R	12	0%	6%	94%
R	13	0%	0%	100%
D	14	100%	0%	0%
R	15	100%	0%	0%
D	16	100%	0%	0%
R	17	100%	0%	0%
R	18	73%	27%	0%
R	19	100%	0%	0%
D	20	100%	0%	0%
D	21	73%	27%	0%
D	22	51%	20%	29%
D	23	68%	32%	0%
R	24	100%	0%	0%
R	25	0%	13%	87%
R	26	26%	74%	0%
R	27	100%	0%	0%
D	28	100%	0%	0%
R	29	0%	0%	100%
R	30	0%	71%	29%
R	31	80%	20%	0%
D	32	100%	0%	0%
R	33	0%	70%	30%
R	34	0%	100%	0%
R	35	0%	100%	0%
R	36	0%	100%	0%
D	37	100%	0%	0%
D	38	100%	0%	0%
R	39	100%	0%	0%
D	40	100%	0%	0%
R	41	100%	0%	0%
R	42	81%	19%	0%
R	43	0%	100%	0%
R	44	0%	5%	95%
R	45	0%	0%	100%
R	46	91%	0%	9%
R	47	0%	13%	87%
R	48	26%	57%	17%
D	49	100%	0%	0%
R	50	0%	30%	70%
	State	54%	22%	24%

With 54 percent of the state's voters living in urban counties, and urban areas having trended more and more Democratic (see this post), eight Republican-held districts have 100 percent of their voters in an urban county: 17, 9, 15, 19, 24, 27, 39, and 41. Another six Republican districts (6, 46, 42, 31, 18, and 7, in descending order) have above the state-wide average of urban voters residing in their districts. Only two Democratic-held districts--3 and 4--have urban voter percentages below 30 percent. 

Generations:

In looking at the age ranges in the districts, I divided the voters into generational cohorts, as defined on the top row:

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate Districts	Generation Z (up to 21 YO)	Millennials (22-37 YO)	Generation X (38-53 YO)	Baby Boomer (54-73 YO)	Greatest‎/ Silent (74-111 YO)
R	1	5,680	32,871	34,678	52,265	17,068
R	2	5,128	28,674	29,235	48,629	17,389
D	3	4,749	26,800	28,421	45,007	16,135
D	4	5,892	32,852	32,928	44,333	15,213
D	5	11,568	43,952	31,662	35,738	9,903
R	6	5,784	39,515	27,510	30,533	8,230
R	7	5,175	28,596	28,059	37,848	12,667
R	8	5,912	31,560	36,660	69,138	22,598
R	9	7,891	46,424	40,444	49,452	17,035
R	10	5,501	25,102	27,467	35,575	12,564
R	11	7,751	35,104	43,573	45,720	11,786
R	12	6,164	31,821	32,259	35,405	10,908
R	13	5,854	28,075	28,930	36,762	11,857
D	14	8,792	45,977	42,165	35,654	8,291
R	15	10,786	56,756	35,924	33,637	9,868
D	16	8,334	47,687	51,626	40,644	9,991
R	17	9,684	37,700	52,945	45,298	9,573
R	18	8,572	37,590	48,610	51,842	13,281
R	19	7,761	37,591	35,516	37,358	10,288
D	20	8,015	59,865	38,001	37,417	10,246
D	21	6,294	41,017	30,365	30,411	7,545
D	22	6,317	35,134	34,134	42,478	12,669
D	23	12,628	48,647	38,101	49,053	15,670
R	24	6,287	33,369	36,765	44,562	15,238
R	25	5,664	31,016	33,276	46,552	19,076
R	26	6,344	30,193	32,729	40,032	12,670
R	27	6,814	37,068	42,407	46,343	14,459
D	28	11,975	51,424	33,349	38,471	12,124
R	29	5,937	27,131	32,820	42,960	14,107
R	30	5,222	26,627	32,892	46,102	16,314
R	31	6,970	31,912	40,128	52,144	16,819
D	32	8,813	43,729	31,934	37,315	12,507
R	33	6,580	32,835	34,553	45,284	15,458
R	34	7,300	33,001	40,740	46,521	14,264
R	35	8,913	33,221	48,300	41,278	10,380
R	36	7,550	36,161	44,730	41,958	11,864
D	37	5,595	62,490	37,228	30,873	7,462
D	38	9,579	47,995	41,404	32,665	7,513
R	39	6,814	35,722	44,079	47,262	15,521
D	40	6,763	41,829	35,160	32,547	8,516
R	41	7,472	43,058	53,635	42,350	9,571
R	42	5,570	28,882	34,023	43,848	14,623
R	43	6,235	34,203	38,079	43,195	13,506
R	44	5,945	27,721	34,973	44,286	14,655
R	45	10,804	35,996	29,957	44,671	16,673
R	46	5,162	26,815	31,972	43,264	16,426
R	47	5,418	27,398	32,207	47,540	17,964
R	48	5,342	30,795	33,489	52,141	23,684
D	49	6,511	42,712	38,945	49,902	15,937
R	50	6,653	30,864	32,064	53,458	21,652
Total	State	358,464	1,843,477	1,831,051	2,147,721	679,758

And by percentages (with an additional column adding the Generation Z + Millennial percentages together):

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate Districts	Generation Z (up to 21 YO)	Millennials (22-37 YO)	Millennials + Gen Z	Generation X (38-53 YO)	Baby Boomer (54-73 YO)	Greatest‎/Silent (74-111 YO)
R	1	4%	23%	27%	24%	37%	12%
R	2	4%	22%	26%	23%	38%	13%
D	3	4%	22%	26%	23%	37%	13%
D	4	4%	25%	29%	25%	34%	12%
D	5	9%	33%	42%	24%	27%	7%
R	6	5%	35%	41%	25%	27%	7%
R	7	5%	25%	30%	25%	34%	11%
R	8	4%	19%	23%	22%	42%	14%
R	9	5%	29%	34%	25%	31%	11%
R	10	5%	24%	29%	26%	33%	12%
R	11	5%	24%	30%	30%	32%	8%
R	12	5%	27%	33%	28%	30%	9%
R	13	5%	25%	30%	26%	33%	11%
D	14	6%	33%	39%	30%	25%	6%
R	15	7%	39%	46%	24%	23%	7%
D	16	5%	30%	35%	33%	26%	6%
R	17	6%	24%	31%	34%	29%	6%
R	18	5%	24%	29%	30%	32%	8%
R	19	6%	29%	35%	28%	29%	8%
D	20	5%	39%	44%	25%	24%	7%
D	21	5%	35%	41%	26%	26%	7%
D	22	5%	27%	32%	26%	32%	10%
D	23	8%	30%	37%	23%	30%	10%
R	24	5%	24%	29%	27%	33%	11%
R	25	4%	23%	27%	25%	34%	14%
R	26	5%	25%	30%	27%	33%	10%
R	27	5%	25%	30%	29%	31%	10%
D	28	8%	35%	43%	22%	26%	8%
R	29	5%	22%	27%	27%	35%	11%
R	30	4%	21%	25%	26%	36%	13%
R	31	5%	21%	26%	27%	35%	11%
D	32	7%	32%	39%	24%	28%	9%
R	33	5%	24%	29%	26%	34%	11%
R	34	5%	23%	28%	29%	33%	10%
R	35	6%	23%	30%	34%	29%	7%
R	36	5%	25%	31%	31%	29%	8%
D	37	4%	44%	47%	26%	21%	5%
D	38	7%	34%	41%	30%	23%	5%
R	39	5%	24%	28%	30%	32%	10%
D	40	5%	34%	39%	28%	26%	7%
R	41	5%	28%	32%	34%	27%	6%
R	42	4%	23%	27%	27%	35%	12%
R	43	5%	25%	30%	28%	32%	10%
R	44	5%	22%	26%	27%	35%	11%
R	45	8%	26%	34%	22%	32%	12%
R	46	4%	22%	26%	26%	35%	13%
R	47	4%	21%	25%	25%	36%	14%
R	48	4%	21%	25%	23%	36%	16%
D	49	4%	28%	32%	25%	32%	10%
R	50	5%	21%	26%	22%	37%	15%
	State	5%	27%	32%	27%	31%	10%

Much has been made about whether young voters, specifically Millennials and Generation Z voters, will show up in this year's mid-term election. While the two youngest generations constitute a plurality now of North Carolina registered voters, surpassing Baby Boomers, their turnout rates have been substantially below their registration percentages (see this previous post). If you take the 32 percent of the state-wide voter pool of voters under the age of 37, eighteen senate districts have a higher percentage of young voters, with seven of those districts held by Republicans (15, 6, 19, 45, 9, 12, and 41, in descending order). One Democratic-held district, 3, has a little over a quarter of its voters under the age of 37. 

Gender:

Finally, in looking at the upper chamber's districts by gender, we find the following:

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate District	Female	Male	Unknown‎/ Unreported
R	1	75,238	65,385	1,950
R	2	68,045	58,633	2,379
D	3	65,179	53,712	2,275
D	4	72,013	57,450	1,920
D	5	71,650	57,383	3,843
R	6	59,375	50,287	1,913
R	7	60,395	49,410	2,547
R	8	86,983	75,883	3,011
R	9	83,334	70,763	7,150
R	10	57,249	47,391	1,637
R	11	76,462	65,698	1,806
R	12	62,482	52,064	2,025
R	13	61,374	49,436	672
D	14	74,337	60,203	6,339
R	15	73,741	64,712	8,518
D	16	81,463	71,118	5,701
R	17	79,097	71,990	4,113
R	18	82,013	73,428	4,456
R	19	67,675	55,352	5,788
D	20	82,493	65,147	5,907
D	21	61,355	49,850	4,555
D	22	69,483	57,242	4,023
D	23	84,860	71,378	7,871
R	24	73,358	60,519	2,564
R	25	72,691	60,196	2,777
R	26	65,312	55,875	1,360
R	27	79,657	66,995	1,184
D	28	82,594	62,824	2,832
R	29	64,824	56,878	1,256
R	30	68,048	58,428	682
R	31	78,176	67,881	2,543
D	32	73,701	56,558	4,892
R	33	70,670	62,180	1,867
R	34	73,853	66,415	1,564
R	35	73,846	66,249	1,998
R	36	75,152	64,201	2,912
D	37	75,536	64,480	3,634
D	38	75,719	59,698	3,741
R	39	79,064	67,907	2,431
D	40	67,821	53,754	3,241
R	41	82,747	70,318	3,022
R	42	66,681	58,825	1,449
R	43	72,082	60,211	2,924
R	44	67,001	58,667	1,914
R	45	72,072	64,419	1,611
R	46	64,679	58,155	807
R	47	68,165	60,611	1,757
R	48	77,145	65,816	2,670
D	49	81,088	68,873	4,049
R	50	76,040	66,912	1,747
Total	State	3,634,018	3,077,760	153,827

And by percentages:

Current Incumbent Party	State Senate District	Female	Male	Unknown‎/ Unreported
R	1	53%	46%	1%
R	2	53%	45%	2%
D	3	54%	44%	2%
D	4	55%	44%	1%
D	5	54%	43%	3%
R	6	53%	45%	2%
R	7	54%	44%	2%
R	8	52%	46%	2%
R	9	52%	44%	4%
R	10	54%	45%	2%
R	11	53%	46%	1%
R	12	54%	45%	2%
R	13	55%	44%	1%
D	14	53%	43%	4%
R	15	50%	44%	6%
D	16	51%	45%	4%
R	17	51%	46%	3%
R	18	51%	46%	3%
R	19	53%	43%	4%
D	20	54%	42%	4%
D	21	53%	43%	4%
D	22	53%	44%	3%
D	23	52%	43%	5%
R	24	54%	44%	2%
R	25	54%	44%	2%
R	26	53%	46%	1%
R	27	54%	45%	1%
D	28	56%	42%	2%
R	29	53%	46%	1%
R	30	54%	46%	1%
R	31	53%	46%	2%
D	32	55%	42%	4%
R	33	52%	46%	1%
R	34	52%	47%	1%
R	35	52%	47%	1%
R	36	53%	45%	2%
D	37	53%	45%	3%
D	38	54%	43%	3%
R	39	53%	45%	2%
D	40	54%	43%	3%
R	41	53%	45%	2%
R	42	53%	46%	1%
R	43	53%	45%	2%
R	44	53%	46%	2%
R	45	52%	47%	1%
R	46	52%	47%	1%
R	47	52%	46%	1%
R	48	53%	45%	2%
D	49	53%	45%	3%
R	50	53%	46%	1%
	State	53%	45%	2%

Twenty-four senate districts are above the state-wide average of 53 percent female, with fourteen of them being held by Republicans: 13, 27, 10, 24, 7, 12, 25, 30, 43, 26, 2, 11, 41, 21, and 48, in descending order. If 2018 becomes another "year of the woman" election, then turnout rates for women, which are generally higher than men, will be another key factor to watch. 

Analysis:

In comparing five categories--party registration, white/non-Hispanic, urban, young, and female--that may move against Republicans in this fall's election, three Republican-held senate seats are in four of the five categories that are off the state-averages: districts 7, 15, and 19. Four other Republican-held districts--12, 13, 25, and 41--have three of the five characteristics off from the state-wide averages. As noted by the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation's Partisan District Ratings, districts 1, 7, 9, 13, 19, 25, and 41 are considered "competitive": two of these competitive districts (7 and 19) match four of the above categories, with three other districts (13, 25, and 41) being in three of the categories that could be warning signs for the GOP.

NC Senate District	GOP Party Registration < 30%	Below 69% White Non-Hispanic	Urban	Young	Women
1	✔️
6			✔️	✔️
7	✔️	✔️	✔️		✔️
9			✔️	✔️
10		✔️			✔️
11		✔️			✔️
12		✔️		✔️	✔️
13	✔️	✔️			✔️
15	✔️	✔️	✔️	✔️
18			✔️
19	✔️	✔️	✔️	✔️
21					✔️
24			✔️		✔️
25	✔️	✔️			✔️
26					✔️
27			✔️		✔️
30					✔️
31			✔️
39			✔️
41			✔️	✔️	✔️
42			✔️
43					✔️
45				✔️
46			✔️
48					✔️

Finally, like with the congressional districts, a scatterplot with a "line of fit" shows Trump's vote performance percentage in 2016 in the district and the GOP state senate candidate's vote performance percentage:

After removing the districts where the GOP candidate did not have any competition (thus received 100 percent of the vote) and the districts where no GOP candidate opposed a Democrat, the relationship between Trump's performance and the GOP state senate candidate's performance is quite striking, with an R-square of 0.953, a strong indication of partisan loyalty from the top of the ballot to the middle of the ballot. Many times, mid-term elections tend to be referendums on the president's party, and it will be important to watch Trump's approval ratings in the state throughout the campaign season leading into November. 

The next post will explore the 120 districts of the North Carolina state house, based on the same five categories of voters.