Monday, March 12, 2018

Deep Dive into the Demographic Dynamics of NC's Districts: Volume 2--NC's State Senate

In the previous post, I looked at the dynamics of voter registration within North Carolina's 13 congressional districts. This post begins a two-part review and analysis of the state's General Assembly districts, first with the 50 districts in the state senate. With much of the attention being paid to NC's congressional districts in this "blue-moon" election cycle, the state legislative races will command state-wide attention, with the Democrats attempting to at least break the Republican's super-majority numbers in both chambers.

The map of the most recently approved upper chamber districts:




Like with the congressional districts, this analysis looks at five demographic aspects for each district: the district's percentage of party registration, the percentage of race and ethnicity of voters, the percentage of the district that is urban, suburban, and/or rural, the breakdown by generations within the district, and the gender divide within registered voters.  All of the data comes from the North Carolina State Board of Election's voter registration file that was released on March 3, 2018.

If this mid-term election becomes an environment that moves against Republicans, it will most likely be due to increased voter turnout among Democrats with depressed levels of Republican turnout, along with more minority, young, and female voters showing up than in a normal mid-term election. We may also see more urban voters turning out, thus the five categories that will be analyzed in each district.

Party Registration:


With a state-wide partisan composition of the 6.8 million registered voters of 39 percent registered Democrat, 31 percent registered unaffiliated, and 30 percent registered Republican (Libertarians are less than 1 percent of the total votes), the partisan compositions of each of the 50 senate districts among the voters are:


Current Incumbent Party State Senate District Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated Registered Republican Registered Libertarian
 R  1         61,847           44,982          35,021              723
 R  2         38,835           40,780          48,821              621
 D  3         72,599           25,110          23,177              280
 D  4         81,003           25,544          24,521              316
 D  5         61,903           36,391          33,850              732
 R  6         30,954           40,041          39,664              916
 R  7         52,974           25,815          33,160              404
 R  8         55,689           53,729          55,798              664
 R  9         49,186           58,609          52,338           1,114
 R  10         44,748           25,558          35,584              387
 R  11         54,978           38,833          49,494              661
 R  12         43,015           33,814          39,031              711
 R  13         69,506           24,771          16,958              257
 D  14         70,803           43,891          25,473              712
 R  15         66,874           52,604          26,419           1,074
 D  16         51,384           65,566          40,221           1,111
 R  17         43,765           56,657          53,732           1,046
 R  18         52,064           51,148          55,819              866
 R  19         54,716           39,328          34,132              639
 D  20         87,000           48,833          16,966              748
 D  21         58,100           35,459          21,527              675
 D  22         65,353           37,865          26,973              557
 D  23         72,461           61,032          29,669              947
 R  24         52,244           38,185          45,375              637
 R  25         57,223           39,046          38,917              478
 R  26         37,220           33,760          51,015              552
 R  27         50,987           43,373          52,724              752
 D  28         83,233           40,716          23,618              685
 R  29         33,881           33,739          54,831              507
 R  30         44,648           34,018          48,033              459
 R  31         38,066           44,391          65,462              681
 D  32         71,516           37,717          25,264              654
 R  33         38,986           39,176          56,035              520
 R  34         34,135           44,982          62,087              628
 R  35         37,554           45,844          58,063              632
 R  36         42,590           45,406          53,503              766
 D  37         75,992           44,455          22,088           1,115
 D  38         82,061           38,111          18,301              685
 R  39         38,225           51,044          59,390              743
 D  40         68,030           35,883          20,204              699
 R  41         49,272           55,919          49,868           1,028
 R  42         32,082           39,606          54,780              487
 R  43         42,770           40,621          51,190              637
 R  44         41,853           36,698          48,503              528
 R  45         37,340           43,472          56,495              795
 R  46         33,874           37,258          51,847              662
 R  47         40,163           40,923          48,830              617
 R  48         36,409           57,504          50,894              824
 D  49         62,473           56,126          34,318           1,093
 R  50         46,590           47,725          49,631              753
State      2,649,174      2,112,058     2,069,614         34,778


With the percentages within each state senate district being:


Current Incumbent Party State Senate District Registered Democrat Registered Unaffiliated Registered Republican
 R  1 43% 32% 25%
 R  2 30% 32% 38%
 D  3 60% 21% 19%
 D  4 62% 19% 19%
 D  5 47% 27% 25%
 R  6 28% 36% 36%
 R  7 47% 23% 30%
 R  8 34% 32% 34%
 R  9 31% 36% 32%
 R  10 42% 24% 33%
 R  11 38% 27% 34%
 R  12 37% 29% 33%
 R  13 62% 22% 15%
 D  14 50% 31% 18%
 R  15 46% 36% 18%
 D  16 32% 41% 25%
 R  17 28% 37% 35%
 R  18 33% 32% 35%
 R  19 42% 31% 26%
 D  20 57% 32% 11%
 D  21 50% 31% 19%
 D  22 50% 29% 21%
 D  23 44% 37% 18%
 R  24 38% 28% 33%
 R  25 42% 29% 29%
 R  26 30% 28% 42%
 R  27 34% 29% 36%
 D  28 56% 27% 16%
 R  29 28% 27% 45%
 R  30 35% 27% 38%
 R  31 26% 30% 44%
 D  32 53% 28% 19%
 R  33 29% 29% 42%
 R  34 24% 32% 44%
 R  35 26% 32% 41%
 R  36 30% 32% 38%
 D  37 53% 31% 15%
 D  38 59% 27% 13%
 R  39 26% 34% 40%
 D  40 55% 29% 16%
 R  41 32% 36% 32%
 R  42 25% 31% 43%
 R  43 32% 30% 38%
 R  44 33% 29% 38%
 R  45 27% 31% 41%
 R  46 27% 30% 42%
 R  47 31% 31% 37%
 R  48 25% 39% 35%
 D  49 41% 36% 22%
 R  50 32% 33% 34%
State   39% 31% 30%

Twenty-one state senate districts hold Republican registration percentages at or above 35 percent, with twenty-nine districts below 35 percent; many political observers have noted that when a district hits 35 percent registered Republicans, the "flip" from Democratic to Republican leaning happens. Six districts are currently held by Republican incumbents but have less than 30 percent registered Republicans that is the GOP's state-wide average (districts 7, 25, 19, 1, 15, and 13, in descending order of GOP registration percentage). These may be key senate districts to watch this fall, if the potential Democratic wave is large enough in the state and Republican enthusiasm is dampened beyond their normal mid-term turnout advantage in the state.

Race and Ethnicity:


In terms of race and ethnicity within the state senate districts:



Current Incumbent Party State Senate District White Non-Hispanic Voter Black or African-American Voter Hispanic‎/Latino Voter All other races‎/ ethnicities‎/unknown
 R  1          99,441             37,251           850           5,030
 R  2        102,392             19,410        1,852           5,403
 D  3          60,499             55,199           931           4,537
 D  4          57,286             66,672        1,581           5,845
 D  5          76,963             46,497        2,666           6,750
 R  6          77,917             21,183        5,091           7,384
 R  7          63,199             41,455        2,461           5,238
 R  8        130,181             26,810        2,090           6,799
 R  9        130,398             18,227        2,527         10,095
 R  10          68,798             28,437        4,633           4,409
 R  11          96,440             37,472        3,557           6,497
 R  12          79,454             25,151        5,289           6,677
 R  13          45,719             32,829        1,494         31,450
 D  14          62,425             56,319        6,430         15,705
 R  15          83,431             40,586        4,830         18,124
 D  16        108,099             17,508        4,819         27,856
 R  17        121,650             15,880        4,233         13,437
 R  18        121,505             23,538        3,301         11,553
 R  19          66,994             44,007        5,532         12,282
 D  20          69,536             61,105        5,176         17,730
 D  21          39,850             56,061        7,053         12,796
 D  22          79,429             39,752        2,891           8,676
 D  23        121,460             19,324        4,764         18,561
 R  24          95,180             30,822        3,448           6,991
 R  25          91,026             34,694        1,507           8,437
 R  26          90,425             22,916        3,635           5,571
 R  27        104,757             30,053        3,414           9,612
 D  28          63,353             70,043        3,245         11,611
 R  29        102,883             13,495        2,137           4,443
 R  30        101,572             19,671        1,556           4,359
 R  31        124,679             14,046        2,963           6,912
 D  32          62,580             57,349        5,725           9,497
 R  33        106,561             21,074        1,918           5,164
 R  34        118,803             14,611        3,229           5,189
 R  35        110,716             18,237        5,177           7,963
 R  36        104,908             24,334        4,261           8,762
 D  37          65,398             61,477        5,504         11,271
 D  38          42,562             78,472        5,290         12,834
 R  39        124,580             10,529        3,501         10,792
 D  40          48,625             57,299        7,474         11,418
 R  41        111,025             25,524        6,363         13,175
 R  42        108,169             10,245        2,735           5,806
 R  43        102,501             22,908        2,986           6,823
 R  44        103,686             17,734        1,898           4,264
 R  45        128,188               3,401        2,635           3,878
 R  46        112,025               6,353        1,528           3,735
 R  47        119,407               6,339        1,286           3,501
 R  48        131,775               4,955        2,539           6,362
 D  49        132,967               9,208        2,472           9,363
 R  50        133,698               1,680        1,358           7,963
Total State     4,705,115        1,518,142    173,835       468,530

And by percentages:


Current Incumbent Party State Senate District White Non-Hispanic Voter Black or African-American Voter Hispanic‎/
Latino Voter
All other races‎/ ethnicities‎/ unknown
 R  1 70% 26% 1% 4%
 R  2 79% 15% 1% 4%
 D  3 50% 46% 1% 4%
 D  4 44% 51% 1% 4%
 D  5 58% 35% 2% 5%
 R  6 70% 19% 5% 7%
 R  7 56% 37% 2% 5%
 R  8 78% 16% 1% 4%
 R  9 81% 11% 2% 6%
 R  10 65% 27% 4% 4%
 R  11 67% 26% 2% 5%
 R  12 68% 22% 5% 6%
 R  13 41% 29% 1% 28%
 D  14 44% 40% 5% 11%
 R  15 57% 28% 3% 12%
 D  16 68% 11% 3% 18%
 R  17 78% 10% 3% 9%
 R  18 76% 15% 2% 7%
 R  19 52% 34% 4% 10%
 D  20 45% 40% 3% 12%
 D  21 34% 48% 6% 11%
 D  22 61% 30% 2% 7%
 D  23 74% 12% 3% 11%
 R  24 70% 23% 3% 5%
 R  25 67% 26% 1% 6%
 R  26 74% 19% 3% 5%
 R  27 71% 20% 2% 7%
 D  28 43% 47% 2% 8%
 R  29 84% 11% 2% 4%
 R  30 80% 15% 1% 3%
 R  31 84% 9% 2% 5%
 D  32 46% 42% 4% 7%
 R  33 79% 16% 1% 4%
 R  34 84% 10% 2% 4%
 R  35 78% 13% 4% 6%
 R  36 74% 17% 3% 6%
 D  37 46% 43% 4% 8%
 D  38 31% 56% 4% 9%
 R  39 83% 7% 2% 7%
 D  40 39% 46% 6% 9%
 R  41 71% 16% 4% 8%
 R  42 85% 8% 2% 5%
 R  43 76% 17% 2% 5%
 R  44 81% 14% 1% 3%
 R  45 93% 2% 2% 3%
 R  46 91% 5% 1% 3%
 R  47 91% 5% 1% 3%
 R  48 90% 3% 2% 4%
 D  49 86% 6% 2% 6%
 R  50 92% 1% 1% 6%
State 69% 22% 3% 7%

With the 69 percent of state's voters being white and non-Hispanic, eight Republican-held senate districts are below that percentage: 12, 25, 11, 10, 15, 7, 19, and 13, in descending order. Four of these districts are also below the mythical 35 percent registered Republican mark, again making them potentially important districts to watch come November with two categories that may be against Republicans in this year's electoral climate. 

Regionalism (Urban, Suburban, and Rural):


Looking at the districts through a regional view, namely the percentage of voters living in an urban, suburban, and/or rural county:


Current Incumbent Party State Senate District Urban County Voter Suburban County Voter Rural County Voter
 R  1                -                  -        142,573
 R  2        67,692          9,588        51,777
 D  3                -                  -        121,166
 D  4        38,079                -          93,305
 D  5      121,561                -          11,315
 R  6      104,380          7,195                -  
 R  7        74,071                -          38,282
 R  8          4,762      138,490        22,628
 R  9      161,247                -                  -  
 R  10                -          38,434        67,843
 R  11        65,650        78,316                -  
 R  12                -            7,086      109,485
 R  13                -                  -        111,492
 D  14      140,879                -                  -  
 R  15      146,971                -                  -  
 D  16      158,282                -                  -  
 R  17      155,200                -                  -  
 R  18      116,556        43,341                -  
 R  19      128,815                -                  -  
 D  20      153,547                -                  -  
 D  21        84,056        31,705                -  
 D  22        66,072        26,484        38,192
 D  23      112,329        51,780                -  
 R  24      136,441                -                  -  
 R  25                -          17,225      118,439
 R  26        32,056        90,491                -  
 R  27      147,836                -                  -  
 D  28      148,252                -                  -  
 R  29                -                  -        122,958
 R  30                -          90,382        36,776
 R  31      119,202        29,398                -  
 D  32      135,151                -                  -  
 R  33                -          93,791        40,926
 R  34                -        141,832                -  
 R  35                -        142,093                -  
 R  36                -        142,265                -  
 D  37      143,650                -                  -  
 D  38      139,158                -                  -  
 R  39      149,402                -                  -  
 D  40      124,816                -                  -  
 R  41      156,087                -                  -  
 R  42      102,852        24,103                -  
 R  43                -        135,218                -  
 R  44                -            6,605      120,977
 R  45                -                  -        138,102
 R  46      112,000                -          11,641
 R  47                -          16,727      113,806
 R  48        37,268        82,988        25,375
 D  49      154,010                -                  -  
 R  50                -          43,731      100,968
Total State   3,738,330   1,489,268   1,638,026

And by percentages:


Current Incumbent Party State Senate District Urban County Voters Suburban County Voters Rural County Voters
 R  1 0% 0% 100%
 R  2 52% 7% 40%
 D  3 0% 0% 100%
 D  4 29% 0% 71%
 D  5 91% 0% 9%
 R  6 94% 6% 0%
 R  7 66% 0% 34%
 R  8 3% 83% 14%
 R  9 100% 0% 0%
 R  10 0% 36% 64%
 R  11 46% 54% 0%
 R  12 0% 6% 94%
 R  13 0% 0% 100%
 D  14 100% 0% 0%
 R  15 100% 0% 0%
 D  16 100% 0% 0%
 R  17 100% 0% 0%
 R  18 73% 27% 0%
 R  19 100% 0% 0%
 D  20 100% 0% 0%
 D  21 73% 27% 0%
 D  22 51% 20% 29%
 D  23 68% 32% 0%
 R  24 100% 0% 0%
 R  25 0% 13% 87%
 R  26 26% 74% 0%
 R  27 100% 0% 0%
 D  28 100% 0% 0%
 R  29 0% 0% 100%
 R  30 0% 71% 29%
 R  31 80% 20% 0%
 D  32 100% 0% 0%
 R  33 0% 70% 30%
 R  34 0% 100% 0%
 R  35 0% 100% 0%
 R  36 0% 100% 0%
 D  37 100% 0% 0%
 D  38 100% 0% 0%
 R  39 100% 0% 0%
 D  40 100% 0% 0%
 R  41 100% 0% 0%
 R  42 81% 19% 0%
 R  43 0% 100% 0%
 R  44 0% 5% 95%
 R  45 0% 0% 100%
 R  46 91% 0% 9%
 R  47 0% 13% 87%
 R  48 26% 57% 17%
 D  49 100% 0% 0%
 R  50 0% 30% 70%
State 54% 22% 24%

With 54 percent of the state's voters living in urban counties, and urban areas having trended more and more Democratic (see this post), eight Republican-held districts have 100 percent of their voters in an urban county: 17, 9, 15, 19, 24, 27, 39, and 41. Another six Republican districts (6, 46, 42, 31, 18, and 7, in descending order) have above the state-wide average of urban voters residing in their districts. Only two Democratic-held districts--3 and 4--have urban voter percentages below 30 percent. 

Generations:


In looking at the age ranges in the districts, I divided the voters into generational cohorts, as defined on the top row:


Current Incumbent Party State Senate Districts Generation Z (up to 21 YO) Millennials (22-37 YO) Generation X (38-53 YO) Baby Boomer (54-73 YO) Greatest‎/ Silent (74-111 YO)
 R  1            5,680             32,871             34,678             52,265          17,068
 R  2            5,128             28,674             29,235             48,629          17,389
 D  3            4,749             26,800             28,421             45,007          16,135
 D  4            5,892             32,852             32,928             44,333          15,213
 D  5          11,568             43,952             31,662             35,738            9,903
 R  6            5,784             39,515             27,510             30,533            8,230
 R  7            5,175             28,596             28,059             37,848          12,667
 R  8            5,912             31,560             36,660             69,138          22,598
 R  9            7,891             46,424             40,444             49,452          17,035
 R  10            5,501             25,102             27,467             35,575          12,564
 R  11            7,751             35,104             43,573             45,720          11,786
 R  12            6,164             31,821             32,259             35,405          10,908
 R  13            5,854             28,075             28,930             36,762          11,857
 D  14            8,792             45,977             42,165             35,654            8,291
 R  15          10,786             56,756             35,924             33,637            9,868
 D  16            8,334             47,687             51,626             40,644            9,991
 R  17            9,684             37,700             52,945             45,298            9,573
 R  18            8,572             37,590             48,610             51,842          13,281
 R  19            7,761             37,591             35,516             37,358          10,288
 D  20            8,015             59,865             38,001             37,417          10,246
 D  21            6,294             41,017             30,365             30,411            7,545
 D  22            6,317             35,134             34,134             42,478          12,669
 D  23          12,628             48,647             38,101             49,053          15,670
 R  24            6,287             33,369             36,765             44,562          15,238
 R  25            5,664             31,016             33,276             46,552          19,076
 R  26            6,344             30,193             32,729             40,032          12,670
 R  27            6,814             37,068             42,407             46,343          14,459
 D  28          11,975             51,424             33,349             38,471          12,124
 R  29            5,937             27,131             32,820             42,960          14,107
 R  30            5,222             26,627             32,892             46,102          16,314
 R  31            6,970             31,912             40,128             52,144          16,819
 D  32            8,813             43,729             31,934             37,315          12,507
 R  33            6,580             32,835             34,553             45,284          15,458
 R  34            7,300             33,001             40,740             46,521          14,264
 R  35            8,913             33,221             48,300             41,278          10,380
 R  36            7,550             36,161             44,730             41,958          11,864
 D  37            5,595             62,490             37,228             30,873            7,462
 D  38            9,579             47,995             41,404             32,665            7,513
 R  39            6,814             35,722             44,079             47,262          15,521
 D  40            6,763             41,829             35,160             32,547            8,516
 R  41            7,472             43,058             53,635             42,350            9,571
 R  42            5,570             28,882             34,023             43,848          14,623
 R  43            6,235             34,203             38,079             43,195          13,506
 R  44            5,945             27,721             34,973             44,286          14,655
 R  45          10,804             35,996             29,957             44,671          16,673
 R  46            5,162             26,815             31,972             43,264          16,426
 R  47            5,418             27,398             32,207             47,540          17,964
 R  48            5,342             30,795             33,489             52,141          23,684
 D  49            6,511             42,712             38,945             49,902          15,937
 R  50            6,653             30,864             32,064             53,458          21,652
Total State        358,464        1,843,477        1,831,051        2,147,721        679,758

And by percentages (with an additional column adding the Generation Z + Millennial percentages together):


Current Incumbent Party State Senate Districts Generation Z (up to 21 YO) Millennials (22-37 YO) Millennials + Gen Z Generation X (38-53 YO) Baby Boomer (54-73 YO) Greatest‎/Silent (74-111 YO)
 R  1 4% 23% 27% 24% 37% 12%
 R  2 4% 22% 26% 23% 38% 13%
 D  3 4% 22% 26% 23% 37% 13%
 D  4 4% 25% 29% 25% 34% 12%
 D  5 9% 33% 42% 24% 27% 7%
 R  6 5% 35% 41% 25% 27% 7%
 R  7 5% 25% 30% 25% 34% 11%
 R  8 4% 19% 23% 22% 42% 14%
 R  9 5% 29% 34% 25% 31% 11%
 R  10 5% 24% 29% 26% 33% 12%
 R  11 5% 24% 30% 30% 32% 8%
 R  12 5% 27% 33% 28% 30% 9%
 R  13 5% 25% 30% 26% 33% 11%
 D  14 6% 33% 39% 30% 25% 6%
 R  15 7% 39% 46% 24% 23% 7%
 D  16 5% 30% 35% 33% 26% 6%
 R  17 6% 24% 31% 34% 29% 6%
 R  18 5% 24% 29% 30% 32% 8%
 R  19 6% 29% 35% 28% 29% 8%
 D  20 5% 39% 44% 25% 24% 7%
 D  21 5% 35% 41% 26% 26% 7%
 D  22 5% 27% 32% 26% 32% 10%
 D  23 8% 30% 37% 23% 30% 10%
 R  24 5% 24% 29% 27% 33% 11%
 R  25 4% 23% 27% 25% 34% 14%
 R  26 5% 25% 30% 27% 33% 10%
 R  27 5% 25% 30% 29% 31% 10%
 D  28 8% 35% 43% 22% 26% 8%
 R  29 5% 22% 27% 27% 35% 11%
 R  30 4% 21% 25% 26% 36% 13%
 R  31 5% 21% 26% 27% 35% 11%
 D  32 7% 32% 39% 24% 28% 9%
 R  33 5% 24% 29% 26% 34% 11%
 R  34 5% 23% 28% 29% 33% 10%
 R  35 6% 23% 30% 34% 29% 7%
 R  36 5% 25% 31% 31% 29% 8%
 D  37 4% 44% 47% 26% 21% 5%
 D  38 7% 34% 41% 30% 23% 5%
 R  39 5% 24% 28% 30% 32% 10%
 D  40 5% 34% 39% 28% 26% 7%
 R  41 5% 28% 32% 34% 27% 6%
 R  42 4% 23% 27% 27% 35% 12%
 R  43 5% 25% 30% 28% 32% 10%
 R  44 5% 22% 26% 27% 35% 11%
 R  45 8% 26% 34% 22% 32% 12%
 R  46 4% 22% 26% 26% 35% 13%
 R  47 4% 21% 25% 25% 36% 14%
 R  48 4% 21% 25% 23% 36% 16%
 D  49 4% 28% 32% 25% 32% 10%
 R  50 5% 21% 26% 22% 37% 15%
State 5% 27% 32% 27% 31% 10%

Much has been made about whether young voters, specifically Millennials and Generation Z voters, will show up in this year's mid-term election. While the two youngest generations constitute a plurality now of North Carolina registered voters, surpassing Baby Boomers, their turnout rates have been substantially below their registration percentages (see this previous post). If you take the 32 percent of the state-wide voter pool of voters under the age of 37, eighteen senate districts have a higher percentage of young voters, with seven of those districts held by Republicans (15, 6, 19, 45, 9, 12, and 41, in descending order). One Democratic-held district, 3, has a little over a quarter of its voters under the age of 37. 

Gender:


Finally, in looking at the upper chamber's districts by gender, we find the following:


Current Incumbent Party State Senate District Female Male Unknown‎/
Unreported
 R  1             75,238             65,385            1,950
 R  2             68,045             58,633            2,379
 D  3             65,179             53,712            2,275
 D  4             72,013             57,450            1,920
 D  5             71,650             57,383            3,843
 R  6             59,375             50,287            1,913
 R  7             60,395             49,410            2,547
 R  8             86,983             75,883            3,011
 R  9             83,334             70,763            7,150
 R  10             57,249             47,391            1,637
 R  11             76,462             65,698            1,806
 R  12             62,482             52,064            2,025
 R  13             61,374             49,436               672
 D  14             74,337             60,203            6,339
 R  15             73,741             64,712            8,518
 D  16             81,463             71,118            5,701
 R  17             79,097             71,990            4,113
 R  18             82,013             73,428            4,456
 R  19             67,675             55,352            5,788
 D  20             82,493             65,147            5,907
 D  21             61,355             49,850            4,555
 D  22             69,483             57,242            4,023
 D  23             84,860             71,378            7,871
 R  24             73,358             60,519            2,564
 R  25             72,691             60,196            2,777
 R  26             65,312             55,875            1,360
 R  27             79,657             66,995            1,184
 D  28             82,594             62,824            2,832
 R  29             64,824             56,878            1,256
 R  30             68,048             58,428               682
 R  31             78,176             67,881            2,543
 D  32             73,701             56,558            4,892
 R  33             70,670             62,180            1,867
 R  34             73,853             66,415            1,564
 R  35             73,846             66,249            1,998
 R  36             75,152             64,201            2,912
 D  37             75,536             64,480            3,634
 D  38             75,719             59,698            3,741
 R  39             79,064             67,907            2,431
 D  40             67,821             53,754            3,241
 R  41             82,747             70,318            3,022
 R  42             66,681             58,825            1,449
 R  43             72,082             60,211            2,924
 R  44             67,001             58,667            1,914
 R  45             72,072             64,419            1,611
 R  46             64,679             58,155               807
 R  47             68,165             60,611            1,757
 R  48             77,145             65,816            2,670
 D  49             81,088             68,873            4,049
 R  50             76,040             66,912            1,747
Total State        3,634,018        3,077,760        153,827

And by percentages:


Current Incumbent Party State Senate District Female Male Unknown‎/
Unreported
 R  1 53% 46% 1%
 R  2 53% 45% 2%
 D  3 54% 44% 2%
 D  4 55% 44% 1%
 D  5 54% 43% 3%
 R  6 53% 45% 2%
 R  7 54% 44% 2%
 R  8 52% 46% 2%
 R  9 52% 44% 4%
 R  10 54% 45% 2%
 R  11 53% 46% 1%
 R  12 54% 45% 2%
 R  13 55% 44% 1%
 D  14 53% 43% 4%
 R  15 50% 44% 6%
 D  16 51% 45% 4%
 R  17 51% 46% 3%
 R  18 51% 46% 3%
 R  19 53% 43% 4%
 D  20 54% 42% 4%
 D  21 53% 43% 4%
 D  22 53% 44% 3%
 D  23 52% 43% 5%
 R  24 54% 44% 2%
 R  25 54% 44% 2%
 R  26 53% 46% 1%
 R  27 54% 45% 1%
 D  28 56% 42% 2%
 R  29 53% 46% 1%
 R  30 54% 46% 1%
 R  31 53% 46% 2%
 D  32 55% 42% 4%
 R  33 52% 46% 1%
 R  34 52% 47% 1%
 R  35 52% 47% 1%
 R  36 53% 45% 2%
 D  37 53% 45% 3%
 D  38 54% 43% 3%
 R  39 53% 45% 2%
 D  40 54% 43% 3%
 R  41 53% 45% 2%
 R  42 53% 46% 1%
 R  43 53% 45% 2%
 R  44 53% 46% 2%
 R  45 52% 47% 1%
 R  46 52% 47% 1%
 R  47 52% 46% 1%
 R  48 53% 45% 2%
 D  49 53% 45% 3%
 R  50 53% 46% 1%
State 53% 45% 2%

Twenty-four senate districts are above the state-wide average of 53 percent female, with fourteen of them being held by Republicans: 13, 27, 10, 24, 7, 12, 25, 30, 43, 26, 2, 11, 41, 21, and 48, in descending order. If 2018 becomes another "year of the woman" election, then turnout rates for women, which are generally higher than men, will be another key factor to watch. 

Analysis:


In comparing five categories--party registration, white/non-Hispanic, urban, young, and female--that may move against Republicans in this fall's election, three Republican-held senate seats are in four of the five categories that are off the state-averages: districts 7, 15, and 19. Four other Republican-held districts--12, 13, 25, and 41--have three of the five characteristics off from the state-wide averages. As noted by the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation's Partisan District Ratings, districts 1, 7, 9, 13, 19, 25, and 41 are considered "competitive": two of these competitive districts (7 and 19) match four of the above categories, with three other districts (13, 25, and 41) being in three of the categories that could be warning signs for the GOP.


NC Senate District GOP Party Registration < 30% Below 69% White Non-Hispanic Urban Young Women
1 ✔️
6 ✔️ ✔️
7 ✔️ ✔️ ✔️ ✔️
9 ✔️ ✔️
10 ✔️ ✔️
11 ✔️ ✔️
12 ✔️ ✔️ ✔️
13 ✔️ ✔️ ✔️
15 ✔️ ✔️ ✔️ ✔️
18 ✔️
19 ✔️ ✔️ ✔️ ✔️
21 ✔️
24 ✔️ ✔️
25 ✔️ ✔️ ✔️
26 ✔️
27 ✔️ ✔️
30 ✔️
31 ✔️
39 ✔️
41 ✔️ ✔️ ✔️
42 ✔️
43 ✔️
45 ✔️
46 ✔️
48 ✔️

Finally, like with the congressional districts, a scatterplot with a "line of fit" shows Trump's vote performance percentage in 2016 in the district and the GOP state senate candidate's vote performance percentage:


After removing the districts where the GOP candidate did not have any competition (thus received 100 percent of the vote) and the districts where no GOP candidate opposed a Democrat, the relationship between Trump's performance and the GOP state senate candidate's performance is quite striking, with an R-square of 0.953, a strong indication of partisan loyalty from the top of the ballot to the middle of the ballot. Many times, mid-term elections tend to be referendums on the president's party, and it will be important to watch Trump's approval ratings in the state throughout the campaign season leading into November. 

The next post will explore the 120 districts of the North Carolina state house, based on the same five categories of voters.