North Carolina's Voter Trends: Regionalism in 2018's Election

As another chapter in exploring the Old North State's 2018 mid-term election data, it appears that North Carolina isn't just experiencing a tectonic shift among generational cohorts, but also within the geography of the state.

Like the rest of the nation, North Carolina is experiencing the 'urban-rural' divide in its politics, but with some clarifications as to the division. This analysis looks at the turnout rates in four 'regions' of the Old North State: at urban county voters who live within a central city (Charlotte, Raleigh, etc.), those voters who reside outside the central city but within that same urban county, voters in the surrounding suburban counties to the urban county, and then all rural votes. This page denotes which counties are in each category, based on the U.S. Office of Management and Budget's classification.

Some thoughts on NC Legislative Battles Shaping Up on Nov. 6

With today's release of a new Meredith College Poll, they find that both congressional and state legislative generic ballot questions have Democrats favored by 10 points over Republicans.

This is certainly an eye-popping number, and may reflect the Democratic enthusiasm level (on a scale of 1-10, probably safe to say a 12), but Democrats are facing two important barriers to their blue wave in a blue-moon election cycle in the Old North State.

First, in North Carolina and in the nation, Republicans have had historical advantages when it comes to voter turnout. In a previous post, I noted the turnout rates of registered voters, by party registration, in North Carolina's past elections, going back to the 2002 mid-terms:

NC Mail Absentee Ballots as of 10-9-18

NC's mail absentee ballots, through Monday, Oct. 8 (data as of 10-9-18):

Requested: 48,623 Sent: 47,944 (98.6% of requested) Returned & Accepted: 4,850 (10% of requested) And by party registration for requested, sent, & accepted:

NC's Mail Ballots as of 10-4-18

Updated with new analysis of voters who didn't vote in 2014 but have requested mail absentee ballots in 2018 (see below):

The latest numbers of North Carolina absentee by mail ballot requests, sent, and returned & accepted, along with various breakdowns/analyses by party registration, gender, region, and other aspects are below--these were tweeted out at @oldnorthstpol:

Requested as of 10-3-18 (reported 10-4-18): 35,209

Sent: 34,606 (98% of requested)

Returned and Accepted: 2,962 (8.4% of requested)

North Carolinians Are Voting in the 2018 Mid-Term Election

Courtesy of the North Carolina State Board of Elections & Ethics Enforcement, the first batch of absentee-by-mail ballots are being sent out and some have returned and accepted as votes for the November 2018 election.

Usually every week I'll try to update these numbers (unless the demand is really out there for daily updates) and present the numbers of ballots requested and accepted by a couple of key indicators, namely party registration of the voter, generation, and congressional districts (as we are mostly focused on the congressional races in this blue moon election in the Old North State).

Now, let me say that generally mail-in ballots will be a fairly small percentage of the overall votes cast in the state; in 2014's mid-term election, only 2 percent of the ballots cast were by mail.

As of Friday, September 14 (which includes up to the previous day's numbers), 12,209 mail ballots had been sent out to voters, with 12 ballots accepted so far.

It's Official: 7 Million Registered Voters in the Old North State

Well, to be exact: 7,005,862 registered active and inactive voters, according to the NCSBE as of September 8, 2018. While not much has changed among the various statistics that I generally follow and report on, I'll go ahead and repeat some and give some further observations as we enter the home stretch of the mid-term campaign season.

First, the partisan registration break down continues to see unaffiliated registration inch up:

Registered Democrats are 38 percent, while registered unaffiliated voters are 31.6 and registered Republicans are 29.9 percent; the other parties--Libertarian, Green, and Constitution--are less than one-half of one percent of the total pool of registered voters.

Racially, the electorate continues to diversify:

As We Entering NC's "Blue-Moon" Mid-term Election, What Are The Trends In Registered Voter Turnout Come November?

With attention now turning to November's mid-term election, questions are being raised about voter turnout in the first "referendum" of the Trump Republican government. And while North Carolina won't have a major state-wide race (such as a U.S. Senate or gubernatorial contest) on its fall ballot, the prospects for Republicans holding their current 10-3 congressional advantage and their super-majorities within the general assembly are already surfacing.

In general, mid-term elections are considered "referendums" on the party in power, especially the party that controls the White House. With Republicans controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress (a nominal majority in the U.S. Senate, however, but lacking absolute control of the upper chamber due to the 60 vote cloture rule), the focus through 2018 will be on the GOP and whether voters seek to continue unified party government, or whether the "checks and balances" will come with Democrats claiming one, or perhaps both, congressional chambers.

North Carolina's "Blue Moon" Election Cycle and Its Congressional Contests

With North Carolina entering its "blue moon" mid-term election cycle (meaning that, with the exception of a few judicial contests, no major state-wide race (for example, a U.S. Senate or gubernatorial contest) will be on the ballot this year in the Old North State), so the focus for Tar Heel political observers will generally be on the legislative districts, both congressional and state house and senate. For this analysis, I'll be focusing on the thirteen congressional districts in the state and their dynamics internally when it comes to voter registration at the beginning of 2018.

First, some general context for whenever we talk about mid-term elections and what we know from the past; and yes, I understand, very acutely, that some of the "rules" that we (political scientists and historians) know from the past have been either "bent" or "broken" when it comes to this current political environment. However, since we don't have anything else to rely upon when it comes to investigating and trying to understand this environment until the actual election, we need to stick with some of the basic principles that have shaped our politics, especially when focusing on mid-term elections.