The Democratic wave crashed into Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district, and Republicans have begun the appropriate stage in a mid-term election year that's moving against them: in a phrase, "batten down the hatches."
In a leaked e-mail from the NC State House GOP political director, the "predictions" were that if North Carolina experienced a similar wave as the one that occurred in Pennsylvania, Democrats would not only capture the lower chamber of the General Assembly, but have super-majority status. Needless to say, Democrats are making hay of the e-mail.
I’m not surprised by the e-mail, because the Pennsylvania 18th congressional election should be a significant wake-up call to Republicans: for a Democrat to win a district that gave Trump 58 percent of the vote just eighteen months ago is not small feat. But
while there could be some comparisons to NC on various dynamics, I’m not sure
the Democratic wave has turned into the kind of tsunami, as of right now, in
this state that may be causing significant heartburn in the GOP ranks.
While
there are various dynamics, such as voter registration and turnout rates
particularly among Democrats, women, suburbs, younger voters, and college
educated voters that will be needed for a Democratic wave to happen, there is a
close correlation to how President Trump performed in 2016 and NC's congressional and state senate races, and to a slightly lesser extent, in the
state house races. In the congressional and state senate contests, when you
look at the relationship between the GOP candidate’s performance and Trump’s
2016 performance in the district, there’s a pretty strong relationship between
the two votes (0.97 when a 1.0 means that the relationship is perfect between
the two—one vote explains the other vote). At the state house level, however,
that measure drops to 0.75. You can see the graphs that show these relationships at the three posts (congressional, state senate, and state house) that I wrote recently.
So, what
the GOP email may be signaling the following alarm for Republicans who are in similar kind of districts as in PA: don't expect a 58 percent win
from two years ago to be enough of a barrier against the wave that may be
cresting in the fall.
While there
is greater “concern” for Republicans after Pennsylvania, I think the e-mail was
more focused on the need to develop sufficient war chests, since the fundamentals
of this year’s mid-terms are definitely moving against the GOP. Perhaps it was also a signal to "wake up" now and get your base voters energized about what could happen. But even with
the amount of money spent in PA by the Republicans, no chest may be big enough
this fall to counter what is looming on the horizon. While there’s a need for collective
action to protect their majority standings in both chambers of the state legislature, the fall campaign may come down to “every Republican for themselves.”
As far
as Democrats are concerned, Pennsylvania's contest shows that a suburban/rural kind of a
district can be competitive, if Democrats have the right kind of local candidate who
fits that district. That, along with several other dynamics, will need to play out in the Old North State as well for a successful blue wave, but the one
fundamental that Democrats seem to be lacking so far in this state is the “generic”
ballot advantage; both Meredith and High Point polls have the generic as a
dead-even, unlike most national polls that give Democrats an advantage. That
could change over the coming months, and if it did, it would signal that the state
was following the national trends, giving even stronger headwinds against the Republicans in this blue-moon election cycle.
At this
point, to predict that a chamber will flip from Republican super-majority control to
Democratic super-majority control requires a tsunami-sized wave that we’ve
never seen before, and while Democrats certainly have the wind at their back, I’m
not sure we’re ready to declare a complete washout of Republican majorities in the General Assembly just yet. But
stay tuned for anything to happen; the winds are definitely blowing.
