Thursday, September 22, 2016

9-22-16 Update on NC Mail-In Absentee Ballots: More of the Same

As of 9-22-16's numbers from the NC State Board of Elections, the absentee mail-in ballots continue the trend of what we have seen since the start of voting in North Carolina, both in total requests and accepted ballots.

Nearly 60,000 mail-in absentee ballots have been requested, with 4,419 returned and accepted as votes for the general election. Of the requested ballots, 36 percent were from registered Democrats, 35 percent from registered Republicans, 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, and less than 1 percent from registered Libertarians.

Of the ballots that have been returned and accepted as votes for the November election, the daily tracker of accepted ballots by party registration is:

As of today, 41 percent are from registered Democrats, 34 percent from registered Republicans, and 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. If compared to 2012's same-day in both the total accepted numbers and party registration:

The total accepted ballots this year are 103 percent of what we saw in 2012 at the same day, with registered Democrats 126 percent of where they were on the same day four years ago, registered unaffiliated voters are 137 percent of where they were same-day four years ago, and registered Republicans are 74 percent of where they were on the same day four years ago.

Of the outstanding mail-in ballots in North Carolina, the party registration breakdown is:

Typically, registered Republicans had taken the lead in accepted ballots and ultimately were the plurality in mail-in ballots. The over-performance by registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters in comparison to their numbers of 2012, and the under-performance by registered Republicans, may change moving forward, but the trend seems to be developing to something that we will need to watch closely.