A week's worth of NC accepted mail-in ballots & an interesting trend

We now have a week's worth of North Carolina mail-in absentee ballots, both requested and returned & accepted, and an interesting trend seems to be emerging.

Again, a cautionary tale: this may be an early trend that reverts back to the norm of what we saw in 2012's general election when it comes to accepted mail-in ballots, but this first week seems to indicate a potential strong interest in this year's general election.

First, here's the breakdown of requested ballots and their status (the first line are ballots that have not be returned) through Friday, Sept. 16:

Over 50,000 ballots have been requested, with nearly 1,500 returned and accepted as votes (there are nearly 150 ballots returned that were deficient in some way).

Next, I tracked the cumulative accepted mail-in ballots by party registration over the past week:

Next is the comparison to the same day as in 2012 and where things stand in 2016. While registered Democrats in 2012 took an early lead, by a week and a half into the returned 2012 mail-in and accepted ballots period, registered Republicans took the lead and maintained it for the rest of the period leading up to the November election.

Right now, total returned and accepted ballots are running at 300 percent of the same day in 2012, with the following breakdowns by party registration:

• Registered Democrats: 316 percent ahead of where they were the same day in 2012
• Registered unaffiliated voters: 461 percent ahead of where they were the same day in 2012
• Registered Republicans: 234 percent ahead of where they were the same day in 2012

Finally, of the nearly 48,500 ballots requested that are still outstanding, the percentage breakdown by party registration is:

Again, understanding that we are only in the first week of mail-in North Carolina absentee ballots, the trend line seems to indicate a real interest in this year elections. If the trend lines continue to show an above average performance to 2012, we may start to see an indication that this could be something to watch more closely as we get to November. Another aspect that will need some further analysis would be: are these voters ones who voted in 2012, and if so, how did they vote: did they cast ballots in-person and have switched to mail-in to "get their ballot counted", or some other explanation? Further data analysis will be done in the future to see what 'kind' of voter (new, repeat mail-in, new mail-in but voted in person) are currently in this aspect of the ballots race.

Status of NC Mail-In Ballots as of 9-16-16

Here is the status of NC's mail-in absentee ballots as of 9-16-16:

Of the outstanding mail-in ballots, 36 percent are from registered Democrats, 35 percent from registered Republicans, and 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.

Of the ballots accepted, 45 percent are from Democrats, 31 percent from Republicans, and 24 percent from unaffiliated voters.

In comparison to 2012's same day of mail-in absentee ballots:

Democrats are 214 percent of their comparable 2012 same-day numbers, Republicans are 153* percent of their comparable 2012 same-day numbers, and unaffiliated voters are 288* percent of their comparable 2012 same-day numbers.

There seems to be a quickening of mail-in ballots from North Carolina voters. It's still early (today will be a week of accepting ballots), but the trends, if they hold, may seem to indicate a real interest in this year's election, by the three registered voter blocks.

*Update: corrected a typo of the percentages for GOP and unaffiliated.

Status of Mail-In Absentee NC Ballots as of 9-15-16

Here are today's numbers of mail-in absentee ballots requested and accepted as of 9-15-16:

A total of over 45,000 ballots have been requested, and 44,680 are still outstanding, with registered Democrats being 37 percent of those outstanding ballots, 35 percent from registered Republicans, and 28 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.

Among accepted ballots:

Currently, registered Democratic accepted mail-in ballots are running 132 percent ahead of the same day in 2012, registered unaffiliated accepted mail-in ballots are 170 percent ahead of 2012's same-day numbers, and registered Republicans are 81 percent of their 2012 same-day numbers.

Again: it's is TOO EARLY to make a definitely claim about these trend lines. Be cautious in over-interpretation with less than a week of mail-in ballots accepted.

Comparing the start of 2012 to 2016 mail-in absentee ballots in NC

Several folks (and reporters) have inquired about the pace of the mail-in ballots so far in 2016 (with only 4 days of accepted ballots so far) to the first few days of 2012. In the below chart, the columns represent the cumulative party registration of voters who had mail-in ballots accepted in 2012, while the lines indicate the cumulative party registration of voters who have had mail-in ballots accepted so far in 2016.

While it's hard to tell from the line indications in the early days so far (the registered Republican line hides the registered unaffiliated line), registered Democrats are at 144 percent of where they were the same comparable day in 2012 with their accepted mail-in ballots, registered unaffiliated voters are 153 percent of their same-day 2012 numbers, and registered Republicans are 91 percent of where they were on the same day in 2012.

A word of extreme caution: it is still VERY EARLY in the process to make any definitive analysis or conclusions so far regarding the pace of mail-in ballots in North Carolina. As you can see in the later part of the above graph, Republicans tend to take over the advantage when it comes to mail-in balloting and are a disproportionate percentage of the mail-in absentee ballots cast. Give it another another week & half or two weeks and we'll compare the numbers to see how things are progressing (above 2012, at the same level, etc.) before any definitive analysis can be rendered.

Absentee Ballots Cast So Far in 2016 Election in North Carolina on 9-14-16 (updated)

Updated*: As of 9-14-16, the absentee mail-in ballots requested and accepted so far are:

*Of the outstanding ballots (42K), the party registration breakdown is:

So far, 338 mail-in ballots have been returned and accepted so far, with the following daily breakdowns of accepted ballots by voters' party registration:

Voting is underway for the 2016 election in North Carolina

With the start of mail-in balloting in North Carolina last Friday (Sept. 9, 2016), votes are officially being cast for the 2016 election.

In 2012, 218,102 ballots were cast by mail, with 50 percent coming from registered Republicans, 28 percent from registered Democrats, and 22 percent from registered unaffiliated voters (registered Libertarians were only 490 mail-in ballots).*

In comparison, in-person early ballots were 2,556,228, with 49 percent coming from registered Democrats, 30 percent from registered Republicans, and 21 percent from registered unaffiliated voters (again, registered Libertarians were zero percent, or 5,804 ballots).

So far in 2016, the mail-in ballots in North Carolina that have been accepted are:

By percentages, accepted mail-in ballots are 47 percent from registered Democrats, 27 percent from registered unaffiliated voters, 26 percent from registered Republicans, and one percent from registered Libertarians.

*updated to include requests from fax and e-mail requested. 

A Political Roundup for August 26, 2016

The second of a series leading up to November's general election where I wrap up the political week that was with WFAE during Morning Edition, with a focus on the US Senate race in North Carolina between Richard Burr and Deborah Ross.

How Many "Party Switchers" Are There in North Carolina for the 2016 Election?

Based on some entries and Twitter interactions, I've been asked "how many North Carolina registered voters have switched their party registration since the 2012 general election?"

In analyzing the active and inactive North Carolina registered voters as of July 30, 2016 through two data sets from the NC State Board of Elections, I was able to identify those voters who cast ballots in the 2012 general election and are still registered in the state: a total of a little over 4 million voters out of 6.6 million registered voters. The data for this analysis is:

		Voted in 2012's General Election as:
		Democrat	Unaffiliated	Republican	Libertarian
2016 Party Registration	Democrat	1,727,420	17,411	7,361	412
	Unaffiliated	51,133	882,859	30,882	1,023
	Republican	29,894	13,924	1,306,740	416
	Libertarian	512	740	898	8,298
		1,808,959	914,934	1,345,881	10,149

Out of those 4 million voters, 1.8 million voters were registered Democratic voters and cast ballots in 2012's general election. Now, as of July 30, 2016, the breakdown of party registration among those 2012 Democrats is:

Out of the 4 million voters, 1.3 million voters were registered Republican voters who cast ballots in 2012's general election. Now, as of July 30, the party registration breakdown among those 2012 Republicans is:

Finally, nearly 915,000 voters out of the 4 million were registered unaffiliated voters who cast ballots in 2012's general election, and now, as of July 30, their party registration breakdown is:

So, out of the 4 million 7-30-16 active and inactive NC registered voters who cast ballots in 2012's general election, 152,755 voters have switched their party registrations from four years ago to now, equaling 4 percent of the total 4 million.  The most "loyal" registered party group were Republicans, followed by unaffiliated, and then registered Democrats--but all of the groups saw at least 95 percent of their 2012 voters stay with their 2012 party affiliation.

Exploring NC's Registered Voter Pool

In looking at the July 30, 2016 data file from the North Carolina State Board of Elections of the 6.6 million registered voters, I began to explore the impact of the past four years of registration, as it stands on July 30.

In doing so, I isolated the pool of active and inactive (those who have not confirmed their registration or failed to vote in two federal elections, but can still cast a ballot) voters into two groups: those who have registration dates up to, and including, 2012, and those who registered since January 1, 2013.

In the July 30 voter pool, 5.4 million voters, or 81 percent of the total pool, were registered before or during 2012, with 1.2 million, or 18 percent, registered since the beginning of 2013.  This does not include those voters who have been removed for various reasons (death, etc.), who are temporary registered, or removed for other reasons (see this FAQ from the NCSBE for more information).

One area of interest that I have is the impact of the changing generation cohorts within the registered voter pool. State-wide, the total voter pool has a plurality of Baby Boomers (those born between 1945 to 1965), at 34 percent, with Millennial voters (those born after 1981) at 29 percent, Generation Xers (born between 1966 and 1980), at a quarter, and those of the Silent Generation (born before 1945) at 12 percent.

For those NC voters who registered before and then after 2012, the generational impact is quite striking.

Taking the pre- & post-2012 registration groups, I then analyzed the party registrations for the current pool of NC voters:

The rise of the 'unaffiliated' voter in North Carolina has been significant, but this indication of the post-2012 registration division by party is most notable. Here's the 2013-2016 (as of July 30, 2016) party registration data:

Next, I analyzed the two registration groups by their racial identification:

The notable rise of post-2012 "all others & unknown," and the declines in 'white' and 'black' voter registration, will most likely continue to diversify the North Carolina electorate. This diversification will also be due to the rise of the Hispanic-Latino voter:

Finally, I isolated the Millennial Generation and explored their party registration within the pre- and post-2012 registration groups:

With one-third of Millennial voters registered since 2013, the number of unaffiliated voters is 45 percent of the recent registrants, with registered Republicans slipping below a quarter of the Millennial voters since 2013.

With two more months of voter registration (barring a ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States regarding NC's election law overhaul), estimates should put the voter registration pool (i.e., the eligible voters to cast ballots in November) at somewhere in the neighborhood of 6.8 million. Further analysis to see which of these voters will actually show up in November, but the continuing change in North Carolina's voter pool will be one to watch leading up to November.

Comparing NC's Current Registered Voter Pool to November 2012 and March 2016 Registration Figures

In reviewing some figures of the voter registration pool (only active & inactive voters) in North Carolina, I did some 'glances back' at two key points in the data files: first, the differences of where NC voter registration stands now compared to the November 2012 presidential election, along with where the current voter pool stands in comparison to this year's March presidential primary election.

In comparing the NC voter pool to the general election four years ago, there are some pretty significant trends to observe.

In terms of raw numbers, registered Democratic voters have seen the largest decline in affiliation, with a loss of over 200,000 voters claiming the party's registration. Registered Republicans saw a 28,000 plus decline, but the most significant increase was among (not surprising) registered unaffiliated voters, with an increase of over 244,000 voters. If one was to look at the percentage changes, registered Libertarians show a dramatic 49 percent increase, but they went from a little under 20,000 registered voters four years ago to nearly 29,000 voters as of August 20, 2016. 

The other considerable change, beyond the fact that the NC registered voter pool is a little over where the pool numbers stood in November (and we still have less than three months to go, so we will see a slightly larger pool), the growth in both 'other' racial groups and especially among Hispanic/Latino voters (going from 113,000 voters in November 2012 to 150,000 voters on August 20, 2016). 

In looking at the differences from the March 2016 presidential primary in the state to August 20, all areas of NC registered voters have seen increases, but the notably increases (in raw numbers and percentages) continue to be among registered unaffiliated voters, 'other' racial groups, and Hispanic/Latino voters. 

A voter pool of 6.6 million plus is currently where North Carolina stands, and if the ground game operations of both parties kick in with full energy (requiring a fully developed field office and operations), we may see a voter pool of potentially 6.8 to 6.9 million registered voters in the Old North State. Of course, from there, it's a critical link to then get those voters out the pools through GOTV (get out the vote) operations. But you have to have the pool filled before you can dive in and begin the real contest.

Update on 8/21/16 at 4:39 PM: updated information in first sentence to indicate that these are 'active & inactive' voter comparisons. Those not in the voter pool are those with classifications of denied, removed, or temporary.