Update on NC Mail-In Ballots & New Perspective on Cumulative Totals

Today's datafile of mail-in absentee ballots in North Carolina shows an increase of 5 percent in requested ballots, up to 14,403, with a 23 percent increase in returned ballots to 1,995 ballots accepted, both from the previous day.

Democrats continue to lead in requested ballots (41 percent of the total), with Republicans second (35 percent) and unaffiliated voters third (23 percent) and in accepted ballots returned (Democrats at 45 percent, GOP at 36 percent, and unaffiliated at 19 percent).

Women and white voters continue to lead in both gender and race in requested and returned/accepted ballots.

One change that I have made since tracking these numbers: previously, in comparing this year's performance in mail-in ballots, I was comparing 'first day' of this year to 'first day' of 2010's election, and the numbers generally showed a lower performance this year in comparison to the 2010 election.
Now, I'll be comparing "days out" from Election Day to garner a clearer comparison between the two elections (2010 and 2014). And what we find is a significant increase in all facets over the 2010 election results.

For example, the first day of returned/accepted ballots in 2010 saw 23 ballots counted, which was also the forty-third day prior to the general election day.  This year, due to ten days of counting returned and accepted ballots prior to the same "days before Election Day," we see a marked increase in the ballots counted on the forty-third day: 1,519 ballots, and that number has gone up with today's (September 24, with 42 days left before election day) data to 1,995 ballots.

I believe this comparison approach is better to make "day-to-day" before Election Day comparisons of 2010 to this year's, and would certainly welcome any thoughts and ideas from others. It is surprising, when viewed in this fashion, the strength of all three party registrations in terms of the numbers of ballots being returned, and the strength particularly of registered Democrats to lead in a traditionally-Republican method of voting.

Whether this is a recognition by the voters of the decreased early in-person voting method or the energy/enthusiasm level if up, and most significantly up by Democrats, is something to continue to pay very close attention to in this highly-competitive election year.

New Calculation of 2014 Mail-In Ballots in Comparison to 2010

In looking at the early numbers of mail-in absentee ballots for this year's election, I also looked at the numbers from the most recent mid-term election in 2010 to gather some sense of how things were proceeding.

Previously, I was comparing the first few days in each election to each other, with the finding that this year's numbers in the first few days were considerably down in comparison to the 2010 numbers.

But in looking deeper at the numbers, I decided to count back from the election day for both years and then do a straight comparison, based on the number of days out from the election.

Well, to say the least: that changes the whole ballgame in looking at this year's election so far.

A note: this year's mail-in ballots were accepted ten days before the first ballots were accepted in 2010, and so I recalculated using the number of days out from the election to make a straight day-to-day comparison of mail-in ballots coming in during the two years.

The above graph shows days 43 through 37 before Election Day, with the bar graphs showing 2010's cumulative absentee mail-in ballots that came in by party registration of the voter. The first day that the first mail-in absentee ballots were accepted in 2010 was 43 days from the election; 23 ballots were accepted that day.

In the graph, the three numbers above the "43 day" show the number of Democratic (689), Republican (549), and unaffiliated (281) voters who have returned their ballots and have them accepted as votes in this year's election. So, in comparison to 2010, today (September 23, 2014) marks 43 days out from Election Day on November 4, and we have a cumulative total of 1,519 ballots accepted as votes.

So what might this mean? While 2010 was notable for the GOP enthusiasm created by the Tea Party movement, it appears that, at least in this year in North Carolina, the enthusiasm is definitely there on all sides, but what is more remarkable is the surge that Democrats have really made in their use of what has traditionally been a Republican stronghold in voting methods.

Is it because of the reduction in early voting and Democrats realized that they need to get their votes in the bank? Is it because voters really are energized by this year's election? We won't really know, but something seems to be going on with this year's election that many may not be predicting for a standard boring mid-term election.

Updated Mail-in Ballots in NC General Election as of 9-23-14

With the latest data file from the NC State Board of Elections, 13,648 North Carolinians have requested mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 general election, with 1,622 (12%) of those requested ballots returned and accepted as votes in for the general election. As with previous analyses, the trends continue to be in the favor of registered Democratic voters.

With these latest figures, registered Democrats continue to be a plurality in both requested and returned & accepted ballots: Democrats are 42% of the requested ballots, and 45% of the returned & accepted ballots.  Registered Republicans are at 35% and 37% of requested and returned/accepted ballots, while registered unaffiliated voters are 23% and 19% of requested and returned/accepted, respectively.

Women continue their pace of requested ballots at 55%, while being 53% of returned and accepted ballots.  White voters are 83% of requested and 81% of returned/accepted, while black voters are 12% of requested and 14% of returned/accepted ballots.

In comparison to the 2010 mail-in absentee ballots, this year's overall numbers are below 2010's, but Democrats are still leading in returned/accepted ballots over Republicans, which was the opposite from 2010.

From these very early (and I stress, very early) figures, it would start to appear that Democrats are mobilized in their potential grassroots operation in an area that has traditionally been dominated by Republicans.

NC Mail-in Ballots Update as of 9-20-14

With 12,791 requests for mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 North Carolina general election, we're continuing the trend of Democrats leading in both requested ballots and in returned & accepted ballots.

Currently Democrats are 42% of the requested ballots, with Republicans at 35% and unaffiliated voters are 23%.  Democrats saw more requests come in (an increase of 7% over a 4% increase for GOP and 6% for unaffiliated from the day before), so their percentage ticked up one point while GOP voters went down one, in comparison to yesterday's percentages of the total requests. Women are still 55% of the requests, and white voters are 82% with black voters at 13%.  Average age of the voter remains at 63 years old.

Among the 1,339 ballots (10% of the requested) that have been returned and accepted as votes so far:

The percentages continue to hold from over the past few days:

• registered Democrats are 46%
• registered Republicans are 36%
• registered unaffiliated voters are 18%
• women are 53%
• men are 47%
• white voters are 80%
• black voters are 16%
• all other races are 5%

In comparing this year's mail-in ballots per day to the 2006 and 2010 elections, we see two trends:

Comparing this year's first twelve days of mail-in returned and accepted to 2006, a Democratic year, we have to note that there was no major state-wide race (such as governor or U.S. Senate; h/t to Gerry Cohen). This year's numbers are tracking above 2006, but that Democrats led in 2006 and this year's is perhaps some indication of better energy and mobilization on behalf of Democrats in terms of the 'enthusiasm' gap that has indicated GOP dominance.

In comparing 2010, a GOP election year and one that saw a U.S. Senate race, the reversal of Republican dominance from 2010 to Democratic-leads would also seem to indicate a level of enthusiasm that was not evident in the 2010 Tea-Party insurgency. 

Updated as of 9-19 of running cumulative 2010 & 2014 NC returned ballots

And here's the updated chart comparing the first 11 days of early mail-in returned and accepted ballots in North Carolina general elections for 2010 and 2014 by party registration:

Update, as of 9-19-14, of NC's mail-in absentee ballots

This may start to sound like a broken record (is that still a viable comment nowadays with MP3s and iPods?), but the partisan trend in North Carolina's mail-in absentee ballots (early votes) has been holding steady for some time, and continues with today's data from the NC State Board of Elections' website.  There are 12,069 ballots that have been sent out, with 1,158 (10%) returned and accepted.

Among requested ballots that have been sent out, those ballots going to registered Democrats continue to be the plurality at 41%, while registered Republicans make up 36% and registered unaffiliated voters at 22%.

Women continue to outpace men in requested ballots, 55-44, while whites are 83% to 12% for black voters.  The average age continues at 63 years old.

Among those who have returned their ballots and those ballots have been accepted:

• registered Democrats are 46%
• registered Republicans are 36%
• registered unaffiliated voters are 18%
• women are 53% of returned & accepted ballots
• men are 47%
• white voters are 80%
• black voters are 15%
• all other races are 5%

Comparing 2010 to 2014 in terms of NC returned & accepted mail-in ballots

In looking at the 2010 mid-term election and the first couple of days of returned mail-in absentee ballots that were accepted in comparison to this year's returned & accepted mail-in absentee ballots, some notable trends stand out.

In 2010, registered Republican voters began a pretty considerable lead in returning mail-in ballots, ultimately constituting 45% of the final mail-in accepted absentee ballots, with registered Democratic voters were 36% and registered unaffiliated voters were 19%.  On the 10th day of returned ballots, Republicans were 43% of the ballots accepted so far in 2010.

So far this year, with 10 days of returned and accepted ballots so far, registered Democrats are 46% of the returned accepted mail-in absentee ballots, while registered Republicans are 35%, with registered unaffiliated are 19%.

If this trend continues, Democrats would be pleased with their turnout in a traditionally Republican-dominated use of early voting in North Carolina.  More will be posted later today when I analyze the latest postings from the North Carolina State Board of Elections absentee data file.

The Trends Continue to Hold in NC's Absentee Ballots for 2014 General Election

It's been a few days of ballots being mailed out to North Carolinians to vote and then return their ballots, and some of the notable trends that we saw early on are continuing within the 11,597 ballots requested and the 958 ballots returned and accepted so far (as of 9-18-14).

First, the requested ballots and their breakdowns:

Registered Democrats continue to be a plurality of the requests (41.2%), while registered Republicans are 36% and registered unaffiliated voters are 22.4%.  This continues a trend that traditionally runs counter to what we have seen in the past when it comes to mail-in absentee ballots: registered Republicans were traditionally the plurality of requests and returned/accepted, while registered Democrats have been the party which uses in-person absentee balloting.

If we continue to see this trend go into the next two weeks, there may be cause for concern on the GOP side regarding the ever-important "enthusiasm" to voting, while Democrats can look with some relief that indeed, their voters (if these registered Democrats are true Democratic voters) are energized and eager to show up and vote (in this case, mail in their vote).

Women voters are 55% of the requested ballots, and within this group, Democrats are 45%, Republicans 35%, and unaffiliated are 20%.  At 45% of the requested ballots, men are 38% registered Republicans, 36% registered Democratic, and 25% registered unaffiliated.

The average voter age is 63 years old, with whites making up 82.6%, black voters at 12.1%, and all others at 6%.

Among returned ballots that have been accepted:

• registered Democrats are 45.5%
• registered Republicans are 35.8%
• registered Unaffiliated are 18.5%
• white registered voters are 81%
• black registered voters are 14.3%
• female voters are 51.9%
• male voters are 47.8%

Again, if registered Democratic voters can continue to be the plurality of early votes via mail-in requests and accepted ballots, we may see a trend that others need to watch very carefully in this year's competitive election, especially for the U.S. Senate seat in the old North State.  

Update on NC Mail-In Absentee Ballots and Returned Ballots as of 9-17-14

The latest information on mail-in absentee ballots for the 2014 General Election in North Carolina shows over 10,000 ballots have been requested, with 793 (7%) of those returned and accepted as votes.

Ballot requests from registered Democrats continue to be the plurality, with 41%, while registered Republican ballot requests are at 36% and unaffiliated at 22%.

Among female voters (who are 55% of the requested ballots so far), 45% are registered Democrats, 35% registered Republican, and 19% are registered unaffiliated.  Among male voters, 38% are registered Republican, 36% registered Democrat, and 25% registered unaffiliated.

White voters are 82% of the requested ballots, with black voters at 12%. The average age for all requested ballots is 63 years old.

Among returned and accepted ballots, registered Democrats are 45%, registered Republicans are 35%, and registered unaffiliated voters are 19%.

Female voters are 51% of the return and accepted ballots to 48% for men; whites are 80% to 15% for black voters.

Via WFAE's The Party Line blog: Gender Politics in NC's Senate Race

I have a new post up at WFAE's The Party Line blog on gender politics playing out in the Hagan-Tillis Senate match-up.