by Christopher Cooper
In the last few days, coverage of the veepstakes (the nerdy play on words to describe the battle over who will become Harris' choice for Vice President) has suggested: It's Shapiro or Kelly, it's down to 12, it's down to 8, Mayor Pete is making a move, seems likely to be Beshear, it's Kelly or Walz, Whitmer is out, Whitmer is in, it will be someone with executive experience, and Cooper or Kelly will get the nod.
It's almost like no one knows.*
What Do We Know About Vice-Presidential Selection?
It isn't that political scientists haven't found patterns about the veepstakes--they have. Research on Vice-Presidential selection has discovered that Presidential candidates tend to select VPs that provide balance on age, region, and demography, hail from big states, hail from swing states, and come from a different level of government than the presidential candidate. Applying those factors (and a few more) to a statistical model, Political Scientists Jody Baumgartner and Baekkwan Park were able to correctly identify 75 percent of the eventual nominees between 1960 and 2020--not bad.
These models are certainly helpful, but the problem is that many of these factors are represented in the same candidate. For example, Beshear, Cooper, Walz, and Shapiro are all white males who are currently governors. Shapiro, Kelly, Whitmer, and Cooper hail from swing states. Cooper, Whitmer and Shapiro come from states of similar size. You get the idea.
And there's the notion of personal compatibility. Presumably (hopefully?) Harris will select a running mate who she can get along with and who will govern as a true partner. That's a hard factor to quantify and model.
So, we are left with an empirically muddy question, and multiple decision makers involved (in addition to Harris, former Attorney General Eric Holder is heading Harris' VP selection process, and there are countless advisors, donors and politicos who have Harris' ear), none of whom are talking openly to the press. Add to that the people who are pitching their preferred candidate, regardless of the odds, and we're left with a fun parlor game with no clear answer.
Does it Even Make a Difference who Harris selects?
For a while, Political Science scholarship seemed to conclude that the choice of Vice-Presidential candidate almost never made a dime's worth of difference in electoral outcomes. According to the aforementioned Political Scientists Baumgartner and Park, "The consensus in the literature on this subject is fairly straightforward. The VP candidate has, at best a marginal effect on vote choice, and in most cases no direct effect." The one exception to that rule was in the negative--there is some evidence that Sarah Palin was a weight on John McCain's campaign-- a weight exacerbated by Tina Fey's depiction of Palin on Saturday Night Live (leading me to wonder who will portray Vance on SNL this year, but I digress...)
A more recent book on the subject by Political Scientists Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko reinforces that the choice of Vice President provides almost no direct effects on electoral outcomes. They also find little evidence of what they call targeted effects--the idea that a Vice-Presidential candidate will deliver a certain voting bloc.
But, before we discount the Vice-Presidential selection entirely, Devine and Kopko do find some evidence for what they term an indirect effect on electoral outcomes. If a president selects a competent, well-respected vice-presidential candidate who voters believe will be an effective governing partner, that selection will lead to a rise in approval of the presidential candidate--a rise that will, in turn, increase their vote share. In sum, it is not the case that the selection of a vice president will lead directly to positive electoral outcomes, but if voters perceive the choice positively, it can be an indirect benefit to the Presidential candidate (or have a negative effect if the choice is perceived less positively).
Then, of course, there's the question of governing and succession. The Vice-Presidency was supposedly once described by John Nance Garner as "not worth a bucket of warm piss," but in recent years, the office has grown in power and stature. Clearly, a good vice president can make a difference in governing. And, of course, Vice Presidents often become the natural next in line--whether because the President can't fulfill their term, or because they run in a subsequent election and win. In all, 15 former vice presidents have risen to the presidency.
Should we Care?
I've thrown some cold water on the veepstakes but that doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention. Even if we don't know who will get the final slot, nor whether the selection will have a direct impact on the outcome, this process is the first time we can witness Kamala Harris make an executive decision as a Presidential candidate. Who she chooses will tell us a lot about who she is and what she values.
Plus, following the veepstakes is a lot of fun. So, have at the speculation, the guessing and the debate about who will get the nod. Just remember that at the end of the day, there are few people who know the answer. And those who do aren't talking.
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*7/29/24 9:57 PM Addendum: To reinforce the notion that no one really knows, NC Governor Roy Cooper just announced that he is withdrawing his name from consideration. And now there's some reporting that maybe he was never in in the first place.
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Christopher Cooper is Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs at Western Carolina University. You can follow him on most sites @chriscooperwcu.