Saturday, October 13, 2018

NC Absentee Mail Ballots as of 10-13-18

For NC's mail absentee ballots, through Friday, Oct. 12 (posted as of 10-13-18):

So far, the number of requested absentee mail ballots stands at 65,949, with 64,715 sent (98.1% of requested), and 9,511 have been returned and accepted so far (14.4% of requested); by party registration for requested, sent, & accepted:

The following chart compares today's 2018 requested absentee mail ballots total to 2014's same day totals:

Today's 2018 totals as of 25 days out from the Election: 65,949

Same day totals in 2014: 44,075

Percentage compared to 4 years ago: 150%

Now that we have a pretty set trend line of NC absentee mail ballot requests, by comparing the totals by day out from Election Day of 2018 to 2014, to say that interest in this year’s election is up may be an understatement so far, especially with a blue-moon election.

Comparison between 2018 in NC absentee mail ballots requested & those returned & accepted compared to 2014’s final numbers:

2018 requested so far: 64% of 2014’s total requested

2018 accepted so far: 12% of 2014's total accepted

The generational cohorts of requested NC absentee mail ballots so far ((see here for age ranges:…)

What is interesting is that Generation Z voters (those 21 years old and under) are over-performing their voter registration percentage, but the bulk of mail absentee ballots are from Baby Boomer voters and older, which is the traditional pattern for this vote method in NC.

NC’s mail absentee ballots requested through 10-12-18 by congressional districts, with top 4 districts by % of total requested ballots:

#NC09: 13.4%
#NC02: 12.2%
#NC13: 9.9%
#NC04: 9.3%

By party registration % within each congressional district:

NC’s mail absentee ballots requested through 10-12-18 by voter's 2014 vote method or year of registration: 

Note that a continued plurality of 2018's mail absentee requested voters were registered before/in 2014 but didn't vote in 2014's general election. It seems like (maybe an understatement) a LOT of new voters using NC’s absentee mail ballot voting method, based on this data.

Here are the voter's 2014 vote method or year of registration by party registration of the voter, as well as within each party registration:

NC’s mail absentee ballots requested through 10-12-18 by gender and party registration: 

Female voters are 57% of all requested ballots (a new high %), while male voters are 41% of all requested ballot. Another important aspect: 50% of women are registered Democrats.

Next, by gender & ‘region’ within the state, and by party registration: 

Note: suburban voters (both female & male) are 50% of the requested absentee mail ballots (those living outside central city but inside urban county + surrounding suburban counties).

Comparison between 2014 and 2018 NC mail absentee ballot requests, by party registration, based on the number of days out from Election Day.

This chart has attracted some attention on Twitter. A word of caution: be careful assuming all reg Democrats are voting Democratic (older white Dems could be more conservative), & even more careful with reg Unaffiliated. They are partisans, but we don’t know which way they lean. But to see the % comparison performances to 4 years ago is pretty remarkable for registered Democrats (typically more absentee one-stop/in-person than by mail) and registered unaffiliated (typically more Election Day voters).

It will be important to watch how this trend continues over time, but traditionally GOP leads in mail absentee ballots. In 2014, this point before Election Day was when registered Republicans overtook registered Democrats to lead the remainder of the time for requested absentee mail ballots.

And differences (both percentage & raw numbers) in NC mail absentee ballot requests between 2014 to 2018 by voter party registration:

And the comparison & differences in NC mail absentee ballots returned & accepted between 2014 and 2018 by voter party registration:

By percentage of NC mail absentee requested ballots that have been returned and accepted so far, by party registration:

And finally, on the 25th Day from the 2014 Election, total North Carolina absentee mail ballots returned & accepted stood at 8,419. As of today, 2018’s #: 9,511.
A percentage comparison to 4 years ago: 113%.