Friday, October 31, 2014

NC Nears The End of 2014's In-Person Early Voting

With today's and Saturday's early voting, North Carolina will finish up the process leading into next Tuesday's election. And with the numbers we are seeing in accepted early ballots, we may be seeing a different kind of electorate than what we saw in the last mid-term election.

As of Thursday, a total of 926,451 early ballots were submitted, either by in-person (90 percent) or via mail (10 percent).  This represents nearly a third of the almost 2.7 million ballots that were cast in the state's 2010 mid-term election.

Of the 831,665 accepted in-person early ballots submitted across the state so far:

  • accepted in-person early ballots from registered Democrats are 48.7 percent
  • accepted in-person early ballots from registered Republicans are 31 percent
  • accepted in-person early ballots from registered Unaffiliated and Libertarian voters are 20.1 percent
  • women are 54 percent
  • white voters are 72 percent
  • black voters are 25 percent

If we compare the same-day total to 2010's same-day total, this year's numbers are 119 percent from where they were four years ago.  Registered Republicans have finally caught up to their 2010 numbers, with two days to go in early ballots; however, ballots from unaffiliated voters are 140 percent of where they were four years ago, and Democratic ballots are 125 percent of where they were in 2010.

For yesterday's daily totals of accepted in-person early ballots:

  • Ballots from registered Democratic voters was 47 percent
  • Ballots from registered Republicans was 32 percent
  • Ballots from registered unaffiliated voters was 20 percent
  • Women cast 56 percent of the ballots yesterday
  • Whites cast 72 percent of the ballots
  • Blacks cast 25 percent of the ballots
The trend line comparison shows the increase of both registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters having surpassed the same-day totals from four years ago, with the GOP finally catching up to their numbers:

Of the voters who have cast accepted in-person early ballots so far and how they participated in the 2010 mid-term election:

Finally, I looked at the racial composition of the voters who have submitted in-person early ballots and how they voted in 2010's mid-term election:

What is striking is the increase in both white unaffiliated/Libertarians and black Democrats who did not vote in 2010 but have cast in-person early ballots this year. This will be important to see how this mix of non-2010 voters may have some impact on this year's electorate and ultimate voting.