Thursday, July 21, 2011

Cook PVI for pre-2010 NCGA Elections

A couple of "followers" on Twitter asked "how would the Cook PVI have predicted the 2010 legislative elections?" Here are the charts, similar to the ones I produced below (looking at possibly classifications of the proposed redistricting maps), using 2004 and 2008 presidential election returns in the House and Senate districts.

A couple of points about this analysis:

In the NC House:

  • In the "Likely Republican" districts, there were 4 districts that were held by Democrats. All four of them changed political hands as a result of the 2010 elections (as noted by being bold and italics)

  • In the "Lean Republican" districts (26), there were 6 districts that were held by Democrats and those seats were captured by the Republicans in the 2010 elections. One (District 61) was won by an unaffiliated candidate.

  • In the "Toss Up" districts (20), there were 11 districts that were rated with Republican PVI but held by Democrats; of those districts, 4 of them changed parties in the 2010 election.

  • In the "Lean Democratic" district (10), one Democratic incumbent was defeated by a Republican (District 41).

In the NC Senate:

  • In the "Likely Republican" districts (15), one went from Democratic control to Republican control (District 45).

  • In the "Lean Republican" districts (11), 5 districts were held by Democrats; only one survived the 2010 election.

  • In the "Toss Up" districts (6), 4 of those districts went from Democratic to Republican control in the 2010 election.

  • In the "Lean Democratic" districts (5), one was captured by a Republican in the 2010 election.

Please remember--these districts prior to the 2010 election are not the same as the proposed districts, so comparisons are not applicable (apples & oranges).