Why the Helene/Institutional Power Bill Found a Natural Home in North Carolina

By Christopher Cooper

Update: The veto override was successful, all three "Republicans to watch" identified below voted for the override and two Democrats were not in attendance. Oh, and although it missed the happy hour deadline I identified below, there was a lawsuit filed on one component of the law by the second happy hour after bill passage.

Please see the Time/Made by History piece linked below (and here) for the historical context and an argument for why NC seems to be home to so many bills like this.

Original post below

Sometime around noon today, the North Carolina House of Representatives will gavel into session and decide whether to override Governor Cooper's veto on S 382--a bill that was initially intended to streamline licensing for dentists who practice at medical schools, changed to one that included Helene relief in the title, and ultimately transmogrified into one that allocated some money to Helene relief, and added another 120 or so pages that, if passed, will fundamentally change who has access to the levers of power in North Carolina government.

In a piece in Made by History/Time Magazine, I wrote a bit about the history of these sorts of power grab bills in North Carolina and why North Carolina and other competitive states provide the perfect petri dish for more of the same to follow in the future.

These same themes are also explained in the introductory chapter of my recent book, Anatomy of a Purple State. 

None of this should imply, of course, that the current bill is unimportant, or business as usual. If passed, it will represent a fundamental restructuring of who has access to the levers of powers in North Carolina.

Gender Dynamics in the 2024 Election

By Susan Roberts and Whitney Ross Manzo

Undoubtedly, the defeat of a female presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2024 provides a unique opportunity to examine the continuing presence and nuances of a political gender gap. For example, one of the talking points in the aftermath of the 2024 election was that misogyny played a role in the result. 

Prior to 2024's Election Day, social media was flooded with sexist memes depicting Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as a sex worker, a silly woman who only speaks in “word salad,” and alleging that she was too weak to stand up to America’s enemies. “I have never seen this fierce of an ecosystem organized to carry far-right tropes, stereotypes, and narratives than this election,” #ShePersisted co-founder Kristina Wilfore told Politico’s Women Rule.

In such a negative and hurtful atmosphere, as the New York Times put it, “Many wonder if a woman will ever be president.”

Some Emerging thoughts on the 2024 Election in NC.

 by Christopher Cooper

I was going to wait until Friday (after county canvass) to post this, but these takeaways seem fairly durable--no matter what happens Friday. So, with all the caveats I can muster, here are five tentative takeaways from the 2024 elections in North Carolina.

Bitzer's Early Assessment of NC's 2024 Election

By Michael Bitzer

Yet again, North Carolina has seen another historic, but traditional, general election: in sum, Republican presidential and Democratic gubernatorial. The more time changes, the more the patterns stay the same.

But digging into a 48-hour post-analysis of the Old North State's general election (after finally getting a decent night's sleep), one finds some distinctive patterns and trends that give us a sense of what is going on this year in the electoral body politic of North Carolina.

Here's a first attempt to describe and consider some dynamics that I'm going to be very interested in diving deeper once the NC voter history data file is available (later in December after the election is certified). 

A Record 5.6M+ Ballots Cast, But Not A Record Turnout Percentage

As the electoral saying goes, it's all about turnout, turnout, turnout--and that's especially true in North Carolina's general elections. We'll have to wait and see about the partisan (and non-partisan, i.e. unaffiliated) dynamics at play and a host of other factors, but an early assessment of county-level turnout reveals some stark differences beyond the 5.6 million ballots cast (a record) that set the state turnout rate to 73 percent (two points lower than the historic high set in 2020). 

An Early Assessment of Early Voting in North Carolina

By Michael Bitzer and Christopher Cooper

Let's get the caveats out of the way early--we think that analyzing patterns in early voting data are important. They're important for telling us the method people are using to cast their votes. They're important to give us an early sense of whether we're seeing changes in the normal patterns we see. They're important (in this case) to let us understand how the devestation of Helene might (or might not) be affecting voting patterns. And they're important for reminding us how open and transparent our election system is in North Carolina.

Notice that we didn't say that they're important because they help us forecast the outcomes. That's because they're not. The problem with using these data to forecast winners and losers is that we are missing the election day vote, which will be a substantial proportion of the overall vote. Using early voting data to predict election outcomes would be like deciding that you can predict the outcome of a baseball game in the bottom of the 6th. We still have three more innings to go and anything can happen. 

With that out of the way, here are six important storylines worth highlighting after early voting.

What Can NC's Early Voting Data Tell Us (and What They Don't)

By Michael Bitzer and Christopher Cooper 

In person-early voting kicked off yesterday in North Carolina, but before a single in-person vote was cast, more than 65,000 votes had already been accepted across all 100 counties. 

A host of political scientists, political analysis, and political consultants will be reporting patterns from these early voting numbers. Look for posts from the Kevin Bacon of North Carolina politics, Gerry Cohen (no one in #ncpol is more than six degrees removed), as well as from The John Locke Foundation's Andy Jackson, and University of Florida Political Scientist Michael McDonald. We will (individually and collectively) probably throw some of these results into the mix, too. 

So, before we get to the season of early voting data, it's worth thinking through the mail and early voting process--why we do it, what we can learn, and what we can't. 

Analyzing the Helene-FEMA Designated NC Counties

By Michael Bitzer

Amid the absolute devastation and human impact that the remnants of Hurricane Helene left on the South, and particularly on western North Carolina, more and more discussion is focused on the political impact that could be felt in a quarter of North Carolina's counties.

I would be remiss if I didn't ask us all--political analysts, journalists/reporters, campaigns and their operatives, and the general public, outside the 25 counties of FEMA designation--to remember these are fellow North Carolinians who have been impacted in a such a manner that very few of us can fully comprehend and realize the magnitude of what they will be confronting for months, if not years. 

But as is always the case in our hyper-polarized nation, the immediate question beyond that consideration of the human toll is: 'what's the political impact'? 

One Way of Understanding How a Political Asteroid Hit NC Politics

By Michael Bitzer

To say that 2024 has had more than its fair share of political earthquakes is an understatement: two assassination attempts of a presidential candidate alone would garner that designation. But then there's the first presidential debate, the July 21 reshuffle of the Democratic presidential ticket, and the unreal amount of money flowing into just the presidential campaign alone.

There are political earthquakes, and then there are political asteroids. 

The asteroid of 2024's campaign hit yesterday (Thursday, Sept. 19) in the form of a CNN report detailing allegations against North Carolina's Republican lieutenant governor, and gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson.

So What Might NC's 2024 Electorate Look Like?

By Michael Bitzer

As I'm teaching U.S. Campaigns & Elections this semester, I always try to relate my research interests into material for class, and this fall's class is no exception.

Recently, a student asked the great question for 2024: "what will NC's electorate look like this November?"

And I said, "well, I wish I knew--as does every campaign strategist and candidate. But here's what we know, based on 2020's electorate and where we are now in the 2024 voter pool."

So I thought I would share that information beyond the folks in the class. A warning: a lot of data is coming your way, so be prepared to swim in the deep end of the pool.

First, a comparison of what 2020's voter registration pool was like (those registered and who could show up to vote) to the 2020 actual electorate (those who did showed up to cast a ballot). 

Catawba College/YouGov Survey of North Carolinians and the 2024 Election: Confidence & Concerns

By Michael Bitzer

Catawba College has partnered with YouGov in surveying North Carolinians about their attitudes and opinions regarding the 2024 general election. Today we released the first of three findings concerned North Carolinians' confidences and concerns as we enter the home stretch of the 2024 campaign.

This survey was done for the Commission on the Future of North Carolina Elections, a cross-partisan group of over 60 North Carolinians who have come together in this public 'good government' organization dedicated to upholding the integrity of election administration in North Carolina. Its primary goal is to enhance confidence and trust in NC elections by educating the public about best practices and conducting research on electoral processes.

The survey of the state's general population is 1,000 North Carolinians who were reached by an online panel by YouGov from August 7 to 20, 2024. The margin of error for the general population is +/- 3.87 percent, with subgroups having a higher margin of error. It is also important to note that all survey research contains unmeasured error and results should be seen as informative, not definitive.

The various documents related to the survey's release can be found within this shared folder:

• Press release
• General Findings
• Top Line Findings
• Appendix document that contains information regarding weighted frequencies, methodology, and about the survey.
• Excel spreadsheet containing worksheets with cross tab analysis of the various questions, along with a PDF version of the spreadsheet file by the worksheets.

You can also find a short video with the survey's highlights on YouTube.

This is the first of three planned releases of data and findings from this Catawba/YouGov survey.