The 2025 Canary in the Coal Mine Turned Blue

By Michael Bitzer

Many will say that 2025’s odd-year election is just that: odd. But for those of us trying to consider what the mid-term election cycle (officially underway as of today, Nov. 5) will portend, the canary in the coal mine has turned blue. Very blue.

Political scientists and knowledgable observers know that mid-term elections tend to be referendums on the president and the president’s party—especially when that party is in control of Congress.

But the 2025 elections point towards a pretty incredible shift in Democratic fortunes from just one year ago.

The wins in Virginia and especially in New Jersey (which felt like momentum heading into Tuesday was pointing to a much closer race than a 13-point blowout) show the referendum is clear: Trump and Republican policies.

What Are The Odds of a Tied Election Today? Higher Than You Might Have Thought

by Christopher Cooper

Municipal Elections are confusing. I tried to cut through the mess to find some patterns--including the odds of a tied election, which are higher than you might have thought. Here's what I found: 

https://chriscooperwcu.substack.com/p/its-municipal-election-day-in-nc?r=4drr8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true 

Also, if you haven't, make sure to read Michael Bitzer's enlightening piece on today's elections in Charlotte, you're one click away from solving that problem:

https://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2025/11/happy-municipal-election-eve.html 

Happy Municipal Election Eve!

By Michael Bitzer

With all the national attention Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City are getting for their campaigns and elections, this is just a gentle reminder that in 88 counties across the Old North State, elections in 447 municipalities are happening as well.

In the largest metro area to me, Charlotte has a slate of mayoral and city council contests, along with what appears to be a hotly (but could be decided overwhelmingly) sales tax referendum on the ballot.

In thinking about the significant shift of major metropolitan areas in recent decades, Charlotte gives us a prime example of what Democratic dominance looks like at the electoral level.

They Called Their Shot: The Babe Ruth Era of Redistricing Is Here

 by Christopher Cooper

I wrote a new piece for The Assembly about North Carolina’s recently passed congressional map. You can take a look here (and, if you’re not a subscriber, now’s a good time to rectify that).

https://www.theassemblync.com/politics/nc-congressional-map-takeaways/

Meet the New Maps, Same As the Old Maps

by Christopher Cooper 

I wrote a bit about the current push to redraw NC's congressional maps in 2025 and posted it here:

https://chriscooperwcu.substack.com/p/meet-the-new-maps-same-as-the-old 

 Hope it's helpful for folks who are trying to figure out what's going on, how it's possible, and what's at stake.

And, make sure to read my friend (and probably your friend, too) Michael Bitzer's take here: 

https://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2025/10/nc-redistricting-yet-again.html

In the words of The Joker: "And here we go..." yet again with NC redistricting

By Michael Bitzer

Fall breaks on college campuses are suppose to be quiet ones—students away, faculty getting some rest as well, all with the oncoming rush to the end of the semester looming ahead.

Well, at least on this Monday of Catawba’s fall break, news decided to interrupt that R&R with word that state legislative Republicans would follow the calls of their party leader and redistrict North Carolina’s congressional map to create “at least one” Republican pick up from the Old North State.

The GOP leaders’ announcement focused on trying to build some cushion in next year’s mid-term elections with shifting a map that is currently 10-4 Republican to 11-3. And the likely target will be the First Congressional District, located in the northeastern portion of the state with Democrat Don Davis. It’s a very 50-50 district currently (located in the upper northeastern portion of the state and ironically colored purple in the below map), with Davis having won with 49.5 percent of the vote in 2024.

Tit-for-tat gerrymandering wars won’t end soon – what happens in Texas and California doesn’t stay there

Texas state Rep. Gene Wu, D-Houston, during debate over a redrawn U.S. congressional map, Aug. 20, 2025, in Austin. AP Photo/Eric Gay

Gibbs Knotts, Coastal Carolina University and Christopher A. Cooper, Western Carolina University

Congressional redistricting – the process of drawing electoral districts to account for population changes – was conceived by the Founding Fathers as a once-per-decade redrawing of district lines following the decennial U.S. census. Today it has devolved into a near-constant feature of American politics – often in response to litigation, and frequently with the intent of maintaining or gaining partisan advantage.

A Napoleonic moment in American Politics?

By Michael Bitzer

Of course, it can’t be a Monday morning without another crashing headline to start the week in politics. And this one gave me a pause to a past survey question that explored a concerning principle.

While in the Oval Office this morning, President Donald Trump was speaking about sending the military into American cities, and said the following:

Set aside if we can take his word that “he is not a dictator,” as soon as I saw this clip, I thought about a February tweet the president issued and a subsequent question that I had on the March 2025 Catawba-YouGov Survey of 1,000 North Carolinians.

Within a month of taking office, Trump sent out the following tweet:

This sentence is attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte, who created the Napoleonic Code of civil law before declaring himself emperor of France.

Trump Calls Mail Voting Unsafe. Actual Data & Opinion Shows North Carolinians Think Otherwise.

By Michael Bitzer

Just when you think it will be a quiet Monday morning before the start of classes in forty-eight hours, the President of the United States sends out a statement that nobody was expecting, attacking a particular vote method that North Carolina voters have utilized as one of three methods to casting a ballot.

Here's the full statement by the president attacking mail-in ballots, along with many other aspects related to election administration. 

If you ask anyone who studies election administration and voting processes, you will get some very pointed pieces of information to the above statement:

Who is a Candidate for Office? The Answer is More Complicated Than You Might Think

by Christopher Cooper

On January 15, 2025, Andy Nillson announced that he would be a Republican candidate for United States Senate. On August 9, he suspended his campaign, noting that President Trump's "complete and total" endorsement of Republican Michael Whatley, "played a central role" in his decision. 

Two weeks earlier, Democrat Wiley Nickel suspended his campaign for the Democratic side of the United States Senate race just a day after former Governor Roy Cooper entered the race.

Although all of these changes may seem odd (why would you declare and then pull out?), it's all completely normal. People routinely come in and out of candidacy at this point in the campaign season as part of what political scientists refer to as the "invisible primary." As distinct from the actual primary where voters have a direct say, no votes are cast in the invisible primary and the voters themselves may have no say so at all.