NC Early Voting Continues to Break the Script

By Michael Bitzer

With just days left before early voting ends in North Carolina, one thing is clear: the trends discussed earlier this week aren’t fading—they’re holding and accelerating. And they point to one unmistakable development—a pronounced Democratic turnout advantage that has yet to show signs of narrowing.

As North Carolina’s early voting gets closer to the last day (ending on Saturday at 3 PM), through Wednesday, 2026 turnout is running 29 percent ahead of the comparable point in the 2022 midterm primary and 9 percent ahead of 2024’s presidential primary. That latter comparison is particularly notable given that presidential cycles typically drive higher participation—even if 2024 featured little Democratic competition at the top of the ticket.

The Democrats' Appalachian Problem

by Christopher Cooper

Few places tell the story of the Democrats' decline better than the rocky, densely forested land known as Appalachia.

It’s not that the parties have flipped in Appalachia—it’s that the Republican strength in the region has become more entrenched and the Democrats are largely shut-out. The Republicans have long been ahead, but today they’ve left the Democrats in the dust.

An Early Surge Is Surprising North Carolina’s Primary Election

By Michael Bitzer

Through the first 10 days of early voting, North Carolina’s 2026 primary electorate is not just ahead of past cycles—it is potentially reshaping expectations about which party is energized, who is participating, and how they’re voting.

In daily totals1, 2026 is standing out as a remarkable primary election so far—33 percent ahead of the 2022 mid-term primary early voting (on the same date) and 16 percent ahead of 2024’s primary early voting.

We’ll need to watch carefully a couple aspects to this trend: will the last week taper off in terms of daily numbers, are these consistent/persistent primary voters (compared to the last two primary elections), and if so, are they shifting their ballot casting earlier, or new voters coming (more on this later)?