The 2025 Canary in the Coal Mine Turned Blue

By Michael Bitzer

Many will say that 2025’s odd-year election is just that: odd. But for those of us trying to consider what the mid-term election cycle (officially underway as of today, Nov. 5) will portend, the canary in the coal mine has turned blue. Very blue.

Political scientists and knowledgable observers know that mid-term elections tend to be referendums on the president and the president’s party—especially when that party is in control of Congress.

But the 2025 elections point towards a pretty incredible shift in Democratic fortunes from just one year ago.

The wins in Virginia and especially in New Jersey (which felt like momentum heading into Tuesday was pointing to a much closer race than a 13-point blowout) show the referendum is clear: Trump and Republican policies.

What Are The Odds of a Tied Election Today? Higher Than You Might Have Thought

by Christopher Cooper

Municipal Elections are confusing. I tried to cut through the mess to find some patterns--including the odds of a tied election, which are higher than you might have thought. Here's what I found: 

https://chriscooperwcu.substack.com/p/its-municipal-election-day-in-nc?r=4drr8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true 

Also, if you haven't, make sure to read Michael Bitzer's enlightening piece on today's elections in Charlotte, you're one click away from solving that problem:

https://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2025/11/happy-municipal-election-eve.html 

Happy Municipal Election Eve!

By Michael Bitzer

With all the national attention Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City are getting for their campaigns and elections, this is just a gentle reminder that in 88 counties across the Old North State, elections in 447 municipalities are happening as well.

In the largest metro area to me, Charlotte has a slate of mayoral and city council contests, along with what appears to be a hotly (but could be decided overwhelmingly) sales tax referendum on the ballot.

In thinking about the significant shift of major metropolitan areas in recent decades, Charlotte gives us a prime example of what Democratic dominance looks like at the electoral level.