by Christopher Cooper
The 2026 storylines are already consuming those of us who pay attention to American politics, and I get why. Will Lara Trump run? Will Roy Cooper run? Will Phil Berger get primaried? Those are some compelling storylines--arguably even more compelling than who will be the next town commissioner in Webster, NC.
But, I encourage citizens, politics watchers, and even political scientists not to sleep on the 2025 municipal elections in North Carolina. As exciting as the storylines above are, the outcome will likely affect your life less than who wins the local elections your community in 2025.
So, let's take a look at what's happening in 2025--which offices are open, who's eligible to vote, and why does it matter?
The Big Picture
The timing of elections in America is, well, kind of a mess. Sure, we have Presidential elections every four years and members of the US House of Representatives every two years. And, U.S. Senators are elected every six years on staggered schedules (~1/3 come up every two years). But, that's where the regularity ends. Most governors are elected for four year terms that fall on even years, but two states just elect their Governors for 2 years, and 4 states elect them in odd numbered years. State legislative term lengths and election dates are even more varied.
And then there's local elections. Even within a single state there is considerable variation in which offices are elected, when, and for how long. Nowhere is that clearer than in municipal elections in North Carolina where things vary widely from one county to another--and, sometimes within counties.
In general, terms, odd numbered years like 2025 are reserved for elections for officials who serve a town, city, or village--what we refer to as municipal elections. But, in case you weren't confused enough, not all municipalities have elections in odd numbered years; some hold them on even numbered years. And, there's no uniform system for determining which is which.
If you're still trying to figure out what a municipality is, see this map of Buncombe County, NC below (copied from Dave's Redistricting). The blue lines indicate municipal boundaries (city of Asheville, Weaverville, etc.). All of the areas outside of the blue are unincorporated areas of Buncombe County. The people who reside within the blue live "in town" and are eligible to vote in their town's elections (whenever they occur). The people who reside outside of the blue lines live "out of town" and can't vote in municipal elections.
In 2025, only Woodfin and Weaverville are holding elections in Buncombe county.
How Many Seats Are Up This Year and Who's Eligible?
In all, there are 1,912 seats up for election across 91 counties (every county but Alexander, Currituck, Henderson, Hyde, Jones, Polk, Rutherford, Stanly and Surry counties have at least one election taking place in 2025).
The vast majority of these are for municipal offices, but three percent of them are for various special districts (soil and water commission, etc), or referenda.
To be eligible to vote in these elections, you must live in a municipality that's holding odd-year elections, and be registered to vote there at least 30 days before the election. To live in a municipality, it's not enough to have an address associated with a municipality--you must live inside the municipal limits. This is an endless source of frustration for voters who may incorrectly think they are eligible to vote because of where their mail arrives. Thoughts and prayers to all of our local elections officials who have to help voters sort this out.
So, how many people are we talking about? Approximately 52 percent of registered North Carolina voters live in a municipality, the remainder live in unincorporated places. Approximately 39 percent of North Carolina voters live in a municipality that has at least one seat on the ballot in 2025. Said differently, 39 percent of North Carolina registered voters are eligible to cast a vote in elections this Fall; 61 percent are not.
Over the last few years I've gotten more and more interested in the political differences between of people who live in municipal limits (in town) v. outside of those limits in unincorporated land. What I've found is that people who live in municipalities are, on average, younger, more diverse, and less likely to be Republicans, as compared to their counterparts outside of town limits. This regularity holds up surprisingly well in all types of counties (urban, rural, suburban).
As a result, it should not be a surprise that registered voters who are eligible to vote for a 2025 election also skew younger, more diverse in terms of race, and less Republican. See the table below for specifics.
What Will Voter Turnout Look like?
These municipal elections are fundamentally different than even year elections in some important ways. In contrast to even year elections, elections in 2025 are overwhelmingly (97%) nonpartisan, meaning that a party label will not appear on the ballot next to a candidates name. County election boards are also not required to make in person early voting available to odd year voters--taking away a frequently used method of voting. In 2025, 13 percent of eligible voters won't have that option. On top of all of that, this whole off year election business is unbelievably confusing.
Those factors (lack of partisan label, lack of consistency, lack of early voting options for some) combine to produce an electoral petri dish that will breed low very turnout. For example, in 2023, fewer than 13 percent of registered voters who had elections in their municipality cast a ballot. Oof.
The Upside: Your Vote Counts!
So, odd year elections are confusing, expensive (running an election isn't free),
often lead to dominance of special interests, and have abysmally low voter turnout. But, there is a bright side: if you want your vote to make a difference, there's no better election in which to cast a vote than 2025. In fact, the margins are sometimes so small that after all of the votes are counted, no one is ahead.
And, in that case,
North Carolina General Statutes indicate that if the municipality has more than 5,000 votes were vast for that ballot item, the board of elections must call another election with just the top two vote getters on the ballot.
If fewer than 5,000 people cast a vote on that item, the winner is determined "by a method of random selection to be determined by the State Board of Elections." That happens more often than you'd think.
I live in the municipality of Sylva, NC. In 2015 and 2019, elections for our town commission were decided by a coin toss. That means I was represented by two people who won not because they got the most votes, but rather because they called heads or tails at just the right moment. It also means that if an single voter had not showed up to vote, the election outcome would be different.
Lest you think I'm pulling the extreme example, the Village of Forest Hills-about 5 miles away--also had a coin toss election in the last few cycles. As did Lindon NC in 2005. And Manteo in 2017. North Carolina journalist Colin Campbell, who's always good for a piece of NC trivia, reported that there were 7 ballot items in 2015 that were decided by coin toss. The bottom line is that coin toss elections happen--and happen more often than you'd think.
What This All Means
I encourage you to not sleep on the 2025 elections.
If you're eligible to vote in one of these elections, there's no time where your vote (and reminding your friends to vote) will mean more than it does in 2025. If you live outside of a municipality, or your municipal election doesn't hold 2025 elections, I would argue (indeed, I'm arguing it right now) that the outcome still matters. I may not live in Canton, NC, but I like to go there to mountain bike
Berm Park and get a beer at
Bearwaters; who the mayor and council is matters to me and my quality of life.
Looking closely at local elections also raises some normative questions that are worth exploring: What kind of government are we encouraging by conducting this many elections on this many schedules, with this many different rules? Are we expecting too much of our citizens? And, in the absence of robust electoral participation, are certain voices heard more than others? These seem like questions worth considering.
----
Dr. Christopher Cooper is the Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science & Public Affairs and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University. His most recent book is Anatomy of a Purple State: A North Carolina Politics Primer. Chapters 15 and the conclusion of that book discuss local politics and local elections.
